“The Ultimate Sand Trap For Pollsters”

2011-12-27-Blumenthal-PollsterChart

Mark Blumenthal doesn't trust Iowa polling:

[B]e wary of placing too much faith in Iowa's current polling snapshot. The coming week will bring another round of surveys that may once again reveal changes in the standings. Equally important, the state's Republican caucuses will attract a very narrow slice of the potential electorate, historically about 3 to 5 percent of Iowa's adult population — a group that pollsters cannot identify with precision beforehand. Most of the recent surveys depend on automated methodologies, most are missing voters who don't have landline telephones, and all will face the challenge of reaching Iowa voters between Christmas and New Year's, a time when many Americans are traveling away from home.

Paul Catches Gingrich In New Hampshire

The poll of polls puts them now only 0.7 percent apart, basically a tie for second. The two most recent polls show Paul edging ahead. In a very independent and libertarian state, where independents can vote in the GOP primary, this could get interesting if Paul gets a boost from Iowa. Against Obama, Paul is now the second strongest candidate in the poll of polls, after Romney. I note that Rasmussen, the outfit best able to account for base Republicans, shows Obama beating Romney by 3 points. I don't see Romney bringing out that base myself.

The Backlash Against The Gingrich Backlash

Noam Scheiber explains why Newt isn't finished yet: 

Unfortunately for Mitt Romney and the anxious Republican establishment, [Gingrich] appears to have flamed out too soon–which is to say, soon enough to give him time to recover a bit. …. Newt has basically stabilized himself in New Hampshire and South Carolina. More impressively, given the barrage of incoming he took there, Newt appears to have bottomed out in Iowa early last week and is enjoying a slight uptick in the state. What accounts for Newt’s glimmer of life? My guess is that, while Republican voters don’t want him to be their nominee, they don’t want Romney to stroll to the nomination either.

The week-and-a-half or so Newt spent in freefall gave them a chance to imagine the primaries playing out as a Romney coronation, and they didn’t find the scenario especially heartening. So just like Newt needed to peak within a day or two of Iowa to have a shot of winning, Romney probably needed Newt to flame out within a few days of Iowa to have a shot of wrapping this race up very quickly. Otherwise there was going to be too much time for buyer's remorse to set in toward Romney, as may be happening now.

Meanwhile, John Hawkins outlines evidence against Romney's electability.  

The View From Your Window Contest: Winner #82

Vfyw-1224

A reader writes:

Oh come on, a random small factory in the northern US?  That really narrows it down! OK, OK – I'm guessing the hint is that the warm weather in December so far means that a lot of locations are eliminated from contention, since a number of areas that could have had snow by now (Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York) really haven't seen it.

The dominance of deciduous trees rules out much of the mountain west where snow has fallen, so this has to be the midwest or northeast.  It really does scream "old New England mill town" to me.  Given that only the northern reaches of New England have seen recent snow, that narrows it down to Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.  My stab-in-the-dark answer is Lewiston, Maine.

Another writes:

The picture gave me Vietnam-style flashbacks. Four years ago today I was spending my Christmas working the Iowa Caucus for a candidate not named Hillary, Barack, or Senator Cheats-on-wife-with-cancer. I think this is Cedar Rapids, Iowa, because of all the refining plants.  (For some reason, the whole city smelled like Crunchberries and burnt tires.)

Another:

Bradford or Silsden, Yorkshire, England? Could easily be one of my grandfather's factories, battered by Hong Kong in the fifties and Japan in the sixties, put out of their misery by the Chinese in the seventies.

Another:

This is a photo of Baltimore's Hampden neighborhood, going West toward Clipper Mill. I’ve walked by it many times. It is one of the last of the old factory buildings that haven’t been fixed up yet. (Give it time. It will be yuppified.)

Another:

The chimney is obviously the same where Charlie and his grandfather almost met their doom with the fizzy lifting drinks.

The building to the left is where the chocolate river waterfall and the edible candy garden are located. The building behind the smokestack is where the glass elevator came out. The VFYW shot was obviously taken from the third floor of the center building and I've included some diagrammatic arrows to prove it:

Slide1

And as a side note, the original is now on Blu-Ray! Wrap that up with the book and stick them under my tree!

Another:

After going 0 for 80, I finally got one last week.  So I was determined to start a new streak and go 2 for 2.  I thought I was on the right track when I found images of Safety Kleen's oil truck.  Alas, after checking their website, it turns out they are a national company.   Tricky.

Comparing the recent weather charts for snow against Safety Kleen's location map, I'm narrowing the location to New England.  Based on the brick color and the type of chimney, the buildings feel like adaptively reused historic mills from the late 19th century.  Since there is no visible river and there are suburban/country houses in the background I'm eliminating more industrial cities like Lowell and Lawrence, Mass, which tended to have larger mills.

I'm going with one of the cities in southern New Hampshire that had historical mills. I'm guessing Manchester.  (In honor of your favorite conservative rag, The Manchester Union Leader.)

Another gets the correct state:

This picture reminds me of a time I got lost in upstate New York and drove through the quaint town of Canajoharie. There was a pseudo-industrial area where Beech-Nut Baby Food had been manufactured for 100+ years. The factory vaguely resembles this picture, with brick buildings, a smoke stack, and small mountains in the background:

13_beechnutplant_lrg

Also, the factory seemed to be right next to some residential housing, as is the case in your picture. On the other hand, your picture seems to feature a pick-up truck driving on the left side of the road, so I don't have high hopes.

Another:

100 N. Mohawk Street, Lofts at Harmony Mills, Cohoes, NY 12047?  I have never written in before, but this time I was SURE it was in upstate NY. I thought, I wonder what that tanker truck is, maybe it will give me a clue? I Googled "red and black tanker truck logo" found Safety-Kleen, looked up their locations, and found one in the old factory town of Cohoes, where my husband grew up. Google mapped it and voila! I showed it to my husband, after my searching, who said, "That looks like Harmony Mills!"

Of the three readers who correctly answered Cohoes, only one has gotten a difficult window in the past without winning, so he gets the prize this week:

Aerial

I have no doubt that there will be many vying for the correct view on this one due to the New York state location. I turned my wife, who was raised in New Jersey, on to The View awhile back and she has helped me identify a correct view in the past. In this case, she woke me the morning after Christmas day and said, "Do you want to see what I found?" It seems that in the middle of the night, when she couldn't sleep, she was searching for textile mills in Lowell, Massachusetts after seeing your photo on Christmas Eve. After quickly deciding it was not Lowell, she moved on to another location and eventually found a photo of the Harmony Mills that showed a match for the smokestack. Although I was hoping to sleep in a bit longer, I got out of bed, grabbed my laptop and sure enough, she had found the mill complex where The View photo was taken. Specifically, it was taken from the The Lofts at Harmony Hills, 100 N Mohawk Street, I believe from the 5th story, 5th window from the end:

Street

The building, constructed in 1866-1868, was originally known as Harmony Mill No. 3 and also Mastodon Mill, due to remains that were discovered during construction. It is now part of the Harmony Mills Historic District. According to on-line sources it was the largest cotton mill complex in the world when it opened in 1872. The attached photo from the NPS archives is from 1869:

HarmonyMills_fromAcross_HAER_cropped

Details from the photo's owner:

This shot is looking out from my apartment in what was once one of the mills in the Harmony Mill complex in Cohoes, NY.  My building was Mill No. 3 (there were five mills running at the peak) and you are looking out on the left at what was the original Mill No.1 and the power house that was built later on.  The mills produced cotton cloth and thread and, at their zenith in the mid to late 19th century, were the largest such mills in America.  The original Erie Canal ran through what is now the parking lot you see below and side channels with water turbines ran wide leather belts which drove the spinning machines.  The power house was built later when the mills were converted to electricity.

Cohoes is know as the "Spindle City".  The movement of industries such as these in the late 19th and early 20th centuries to the South devastated cities like Cohoes.  Where once 3,000 people worked in harmony Mills alone (there were other mills nearby that produce cloth, etc – Arrow Shirts were made here at one point, along with celluloid collars in nearby Troy) you now find a sleepy little town that serves more as a bedroom community for the Albany capitol region.

(Archive)

Ron Paul’s Portfolio Matches His Rhetoric, Ctd

Adam Ozimek analyzes Ron Paul's portfolio:

There is a lot of moralizing that accompanies bad economic theories. As if our failure to adhere to the crank theories makes us in a way deserve economic collapse. The ability to yell “you should have listened to me!” and “I told you so!” from a well prepared bunker as society collapses is every crank’s fantasy. I’m not going to psychoanalyze too deeply, but I do think there is something sociopathic about a desire to be right that is so strong it makes people, even subconsciously, kind of want a global disaster to happen. To the preppers and doomsayers in the room: you can object all day you don’t want it to happen, but I have spoken to many of you in real life, and I have seen the wishful glimmer in many of your eyes …

Another thing I think you can arguably take from this relates to the re-emerging scandal of Paul’s racist newsletters. Racism, especially of the kind espoused by whoever wrote Paul’s newsletter, can be thought of as another crazy belief. It is my contention that crazy beliefs tend to be correlated. For any given crazy claim, people who hold another crazy belief are more likely to accept it, and those who hold dozens of crazy beliefs are way more likely to accept it. Because of this phenomenon, of I think it is more likely that Ron Paul actually believes the crazy things published in his newsletters than it is that Barack Obama believes the crazy things Reverend Wright said. Ron Paul is on the record as holding many crazy beliefs, whereas Barack Obama is not (that creating green jobs is something for policy to target may be wrong, but it’s not crazy).

A reader makes related points:

I think that while all these discussions Ron Paul’s alleged craziness  (He’s a bigot! He’d abandon Israel! He’d legalize drugs!) certainly warrant some serious consideration, they rather miss the most serious piece of lunacy about the man, and the thing that should absolutely be disqualifying: Ron Paul wants to abolish the Fed and return to the gold standard.

This position is the economic policy equivalent of creationism. It reflects a view of economics borne of either fundamental misunderstanding or willful denial, or both. Like creationism it has a superficial charm and slogan-ready appeal, and like creationism it is also astonishingly ignorant and dangerous. Imagine the consequences if a President Paul were somehow able to enact his preferred policy. The results would be catastrophic for both the American people and the global economy.

Fortunately, there is very little chance of this happening. Even if Paul were elected president, Congress would probably retain sufficient of its (admittedly) dwindling faculties to avoid that particular catastrophe. However, it seems to me that if you have to rely on this safety valve, this is a fairly good indicator that this man should be disqualified from consideration in the first place.

Keeping Your Change

A group of NYU students wants to put your low-balance Metrocards to good use: 

MetroChange is a proposal for a kiosk that will allow MTA riders to donate the pesky leftover funds on their Metrocards to charity. NYU students Stephan Boltalin, Genevieve Hoffman, and Paul May have imagined a friendly, easy-to-use machine that invites New Yorkers to swipe their Metrocards, press a button, donate their chump change MTA credits, and feel the love of their own big hearts. A thin metal slot will even take used Metrocards off your hands for recycling, so you won’t have to Frisbee them into the tracks later. … One major hurdle is the fact that the credits on Metrocards are already part of the MTA economy, though their value belongs to MTA riders. The proposal hopes that the MTA can either match the value of rogue funds and donate the amount to charity, or that another institution can take on the same endeavor. 

Ron Paul’s Big Tent

Byron York takes a second look at Paul's support in the early states: 

[I]t appears that only about half of Paul's supporters are Republicans. In Iowa, according to Rasmussen, just 51 percent of Paul supporters consider themselves Republicans. In New Hampshire, the number is 56 percent, according to Andrew Smith, head of the University of New Hampshire poll. The same New Hampshire survey found that 87 percent of the people who support Romney consider themselves Republicans. For Newt Gingrich, it's 85 percent. So who is supporting Paul? In New Hampshire, Paul is the choice of just 13 percent of Republicans, according to the new poll, while he is the favorite of 36 percent of independents and 26 percent of Democrats who intend to vote in the primary. Paul leads in both non-Republican categories.

What If Romney Underperforms In Iowa?

Allahpundit thinks ahead:

It’s not strictly true that a Paul win in Iowa automatically helps Romney to the nomination. It’s probably true in the sense that Romney is likely to finish second at worst, but what if he finishes fourth or even fifth behind Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann, and/or Perry? That’ll wound him badly headed into New Hampshire; meanwhile, if Gingrich finishes second in Iowa, he (and Huntsman) would be in good shape to become the Stop Paul/Not Romney candidate in New Hampshire.

If he won there, then suddenly Romney would be 0 for 2 and taking a ferocious beating in the media for underperforming. That would make a Gingrich victory in South Carolina, where he’s currently leading, seem very likely, and then Romney would try to make a stand in Florida against Newt’s momentum. It’s hard to believe that scenario will play out, but the odds aren’t zero.

Nate Silver makes the same point.