Month: December 2011

Re-Thinking The Paul Endorsement

I sat down and re-read some of the Ron Paul newsletters last night. I don't think he wrote them; I don't think they represent who he is; I do not believe the man is a racist, although seeing into men's souls is not something any of us is very good at. But you have railed and railed and railed at me these past few days – and it's my duty to sit down and re-think. It's happened before and will happen again. I write and think in real time.

In my view, my friend Joe Klein goes too far:

The newsletters went out under his name. They are replete with hateful filth. They disqualify him from the presidency. The idea that someone else wrote them and Paul didn’t read them is utter nonsense–even if true, it would be a devastating commentary on Paul’s executive abilities. How could he hire whomever wrote this crap? And so, when I called Ron Paul honorable yesterday, I was wrong. He is not.

This is too much (I think it's perfectly possible, rather than 'nonsense', that Paul used these newsletters as fundraising tools without full oversight). But it is not nothing. A fringe protest candidate need not fully address issues two decades ago that do not in any way reflect the campaign he has run or the issues on which he has made an appeal. But a man who could win the Iowa caucuses and is now third in national polls has to have a plausible answer for this. It's what happens when you hit the big leagues. Obama did it with Jeremiah Wright, openly grappling with the past toxic association, owning it, explaining it. Paul has not had the wherewithal or presence of mind to do that. Indeed, he has not even named the association, the first step to disowning it. And unlike Obama with Wright, Paul got money from these newsletters.

It seems to me that even though I don't believe these old screeds reflect Paul's own beliefs, his new level of prominence demands a new level of accountablity, even on issues this old. If Paul did not write these newsletters, then he has an obligation to say if he knew who did, or conduct an investigation. He has had years to do this, and hasn't. And here's what you've persuaded me of in the last few days: a person who has that kind of bigotry directly printed under his name without a clear empirical explanation of why he is innocent cannot be an honorable president of the United States. The hatred of groups of people in those letters – however gussied up by shards of legitimate arguments – is too deep and vile to be attached to a leader of the entire country. It is far too divisive. The appearance of things matters; and until Paul explains why this appears so horrible, he cannot shrug off the burden of proof.

My endorsement was complicated and I'd like to ask hostile readers to do me the favor of re-reading it before they get all worked up again. It's a very delicate maneuver between Huntsman and Paul. But there was an illogic in it that I now understand:

There are times when [Paul] is rightly described as a crank. He has had associations in the past that are creepy when not downright ugly. But all this is why a conservative like me is for Obama. What we are talking about here is who to support in a primary dominated by extremes, resentment, absence of ideas and Obama-hatred.

This works as an argument if you endorse Paul, as I did, as the best medicine for the GOP, not the best president. But I'm not sure, in retrospect, that I can have that cake and eat it too. An endorsement should not be entirely instrumental. I'm not trying to spoil the GOP race; I am trying to support the one guy who has resisted both perpetual offensive warfare and out-of-control spending in the years Republicans embraced both. And so I have to accept that I am endorsing him as a candidate for the presidency, not just as a protest vote against the last decade, and think that through fully.

And I just cannot see how he can be such a president without explaining away the newsletters convincingly. Until he does, I have to say that the balance of the endorsement must now go to Huntsman. Oddly, I think that Paul's courage in challenging the neocon establishment has made a Huntsman candidacy possible. And I tend to prefer the brave to the lucky. And I stand by all the things I wrote about Paul's views, his refreshing candor, his happy temperament, his support for minorities, and his vital work to undo the war on drugs and the military-industrial complex. I don't think he's a racist; in fact, I think he's one of the least racially aware politicians I've come across in a long while.

But the words and sentiments in those newsletters cannot attach themselves – even by mere appearance – to a potential president of this country. I see that now. Maybe my admiration for Paul's courage and his extraordinary resistance to the authoritarianism and intolerance in his own party blinded me to this. But you can't be both the solution and the problem. And so, until Paul fully explains this incident, in the kind of way Michael Tomasky recommends, I have to say there is an alternative, as I described at length in the endorsement: Jon Huntsman. He's what my super-ego tells me is the right choice. My id remains with Ron. But I write with the rational part of my brain, or at least I try to.

The View From Your Window Contest

Vfyw-1224

You have until noon on Tuesday to guess it. City and/or state first, then country. Please put the location in the subject heading, along with any description within the email. If no one guesses the exact location, proximity counts.  Be sure to email entries to VFYWcontest@gmail.com. Winner gets a free The View From Your Window book. Have at it.

The End Of Parked Cars?

Osma Ahvenlampi argues robocars could improve downtown parking:

Lets accept as a given that it'll take a while before we'll be ready for automated cars carrying passengers around on streets where people are driving, moving at regular traffic speeds. But what about having empty cars move themselves through preassigned routes, on specific lanes, at lower speeds, yielding to all human traffic? How many municipalities suffer from too many cars around bad enough to consider arranging for those special routes? I'm guessing there are a few.

Koushik Dutta brainstorms some consequences of driverless cars. Sebastian Thrun's TED talk earlier this year covered how much money we waste sitting in traffic and how many accidents are a result of human error. Brad Templeton, a robotic car strategist, ran the numbers:

Studies suggest that 40% of fatal accidents involve drunk driving and that 80% of all accidents are the result of driver inattention. Almost 60% of fatal accidents are single-vehicle, 70% of those involving a car leaving the road, often due to mistake, sleep or alcohol. 30% of fatalities involve alcohol impairment, over 50% have some alcohol involved.

Yglesias critiques Google's patents on driverless cars.

Beware The Christmas Tree

Sam Biddle captions this government PSA:

As you know, Christmas trees are made out of tree, and trees, like all plants, can dry out. Most plants, however, don't have an enormous string of cheap Chinese electrical wiring draped around them—so the Christmas tree is a hidden bomb inside your house. Do you hear it? Tick. Tick. Tick. The CPSC recommends having a designated "tree waterer" to make sure yours doesn't turn into a house-destroying explosion shrub. Probably a good idea! That'll keep it pretty too.

A Gym Membership In Every Stocking

Dan Ariely encourages "paternalistic" gift-giving:

A paternalistic gift ignores the preferences of the person getting the gift, which tends to drive economists crazy, but it may actually change those preferences for the better. Of course, you might mess up by giving a paternalistic gift that someone hates, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't try.

Christmas Spirit

Xmas

Steven E. Landsburg defends Scrooge:

If you build a house and refuse to buy a house, the rest of the world is one house richer. If you earn a dollar and refuse to spend a dollar, the rest of the world is one dollar richer—because you produced a dollar's worth of goods and didn't consume them.

Who exactly gets those goods? That depends on how you save. Put a dollar in the bank and you'll bid down the interest rate by just enough so someone somewhere can afford an extra dollar's worth of vacation or home improvement. Put a dollar in your mattress and (by effectively reducing the money supply) you'll drive down prices by just enough so someone somewhere can have an extra dollar's worth of coffee with his dinner. Scrooge, no doubt a canny investor, lent his money at interest. His less conventional namesake Scrooge McDuck filled a vault with dollar bills to roll around in. No matter. Ebenezer Scrooge lowered interest rates. Scrooge McDuck lowered prices. Each Scrooge enriched his neighbors as much as any Lord Mayor who invited the town in for a Christmas meal.

Robin Hanson nods:

Humans have had literally millions of years experience begging from one other. Many primates do it, as do foragers. A supplicant appeals to common feelings that one should help associates in need when one is doing well, in the expectation of getting help later when you are in need, and also of sending good signals about your loyalty and ability.

Associates who hint that you should be less miserly and make more overt gifts are not at all hoping that you will spread your gift equitably across the world. They are instead hoping that you will unequally focus most of your gift on them. 

(Photo via Happy Place)

The Danger Of Storytelling

Tyler Cowen's TED talk on stories has been transcribed. Moneyquote:

One interesting thing about cognitive biases – they’re the subject of so many books these days. There’s the Nudge book, the Sway book, the Blink book, like the one-title book, all about the ways in which we screw up. And there are so many ways, but what I find interesting is that none of these books identify what, to me, is the single, central, most important way we screw up, and that is, we tell ourselves too many stories, or we are too easily seduced by stories. And why don’t these books tell us that? It’s because the books themselves are all about stories. The more of these books you read, you’re learning about some of your biases, but you’re making some of your other biases essentially worse.

So the books themselves are part of your cognitive bias. Often, people buy them as a kind of talisman, like “I bought this book. I won’t be Predictably Irrational.” It’s like people want to hear the worst, so psychologically, they can prepare for it or defend against it. It’s why there’s such a market for pessimism. But to think that buying the book gets you somewhere, that’s maybe the bigger fallacy. It’s just like the evidence that shows the most dangerous people are those that have been taught some financial literacy. They’re the ones who go out and make the worst mistakes. It’s the people that realize, “I don’t know anything at all,” that end up doing pretty well.

 (Hat tip: Casnocha)

 

The Weekly Wrap

Today on the Dish, we collected reax to the payroll tax cut extension, Andrew went another round on Ron Paul and race, he elaborated on his philosophy on endorsements, and explained his support as a form of protest. Paul won the endorsements of weary troops, he's heavily invested in gold, and should stay away from the cover of Newsweek. We addressed the (im)possibility of a "triple-flip" election, SOPA is a bipartisan disaster, and sympathy requires self-awareness.

The situation in Iraq quickly deteriorated, Syria faced a sectarian civil war as violence erupted, and Christianity disappeared from the Middle East. A bar owner risked his life to buy liquor in Baghdad, something's gotta give in the US-Pakistan relationship, and Chinese authorities viewed popular protests as a learning opportunity.

In our AAA video, Andrew discussed a potential move to Brooklyn (about his three-legged dog t-shirt here), a mushroom channeled Santa Claus, and Christmas carols have always been hated. We revisited the unruly spirit of Christmas, considered American attitudes toward the rich and powerful, and reflected on our lives as told by Facebook Timeline. New census data confirmed the South's demographic dominance, porn beat Christmas at search, and nicotine doesn't improve focus. Immigration arrests skyrockted, good beer proliferated, and readers exchanged tips on watching sports without cable.

Musical ode to mall Santas here, Kristen Stewart explains Christmas here, a brief history of Christmas here, Malkin award nominee here, VFYW here, FOTD here, and MHB here.

Thursday on the Dish, the economy exacted enormous strain on the middle class, Andrew put the Ron Paul newsletters in perspective, and he took on the larger issue of bigotry in the GOP. Michael Dougherty offered a short history of the newsletters, readers stormed the in-tray, and Neil Cavuto urged the Republican media to take Ron Paul seriously. WFB would not have disqualified the congressman based on foreign policy, and Paul shirked front-runner treatment as he neared a maximum level of support. We debated Romney's relative weakness, analyzed conservative policy dysfunction on the payroll tax, and in our AAA video, Andrew discussed campaign finance and the First Amendment.

We addressed the security risks of bird flu research, the surge failed by its own standards in Iraq, and Republicans favor "economic and diplomatic efforts" in Iran. Romney changed positions on the Bin Laden raid, the clock ticked for Assad in Syria, and the neocons smothered the debate surrounding America's role in the world. Corruption tainted the adoption process in Ethiopia, and the North Korean famine was perhaps the greatest man-made catastrophe of the post-Cold War period.

The ACA exceeded expectations, polls are like blood tests, and the Depression killed Prohibition. We weighed the dispensability of HR, became well-versed in efficient gift-giving, and considered doing away with presents altogether. 

Huntsman's lame joke here, gospel music in the car here, the Christmas of your nightmares here, Moore award nominee here, MHB here, FOTD here, VFYW here, and the kiss of the day here. 

Vfyw
Evanston, Illinois 11.25 am

Wednesday on the Dish, Andrew sensed a watershed moment as the House GOP played "high stakes poker," the WSJ ridiculed congressional Republicans as the McConnell method prevailed, and Romney naturally refused to take sides. The GOP discounted an electable candidate, Paul's candidacy could ultimately make room for pragmatism in the Republican Party, and Jennifer Rubin faced a hard road. The GOP establishment has morphed into a "Washington consensus," Gingrich got pummeled on TV, and he and his party turned away a whole group of people (follow-up here). Paul surged (and he under-polls), Silver broke down Obama's approval rating bounce, and the Dish reader survey continued. In our AAA video, Andrew addressed Reagan's response to the AIDS crisis and his presidency in general, the presumptive nominee equivocated on Iraq, and he's a big fat liar. 

We tracked developments as Assad slaughtered 250 Syrians in two days, Eli Lake checked in on major political squabbling in Iraq, Issandr El Amrani exposed the reality in Egypt, and we thought through the consequences of a North Korean collapse. Andrew discussed North Korea and torture, protesters marshalled the arts, and Hamas signaled a transition to nonviolent resistance. 

Hitch's life was ended by addiction, deep local knowledge is overrated, and homophobia is fucked up. Piers Morgan was "extremely hands on" as editor of the Daily Mirror, policymakers must behave as if "there will, in fact, be a future," and Ryan-Wyden forged a consensus around competition in healthcare. James Madison approached the environment with humility, readers weighed in on pubic hair and the lack thereof, and cleaning is a form of conspicuous consumption.

Lamest jokes from the GOP candidates here and here, tweet of the day here, Newt's turn at bad lip-reading here, Kim Jong-il dropping the bass here, Moore award nominee here, VFYW here, MHB here, and FOTD here. 

Tuesday on the Dish, Andrew stood by his endorsement of Ron Paul, he reflected on Hitch's force of will, and Marc Tracy put forth a theory of Hitchens' Jewishness. Obama has had a good fall, we wondered when his views on marriage equality would fully "evolve," and Keith Humphreys predicted that the president would win the Iowa caucuses. Ron Paul is officially the frontrunner in Iowa, we dusted off his eponymous racist newsletters (a reader's take here), and the RNC-FNC prepared to continue to ignore Paul and disregard Iowans. We pictured a Paul victory in Iowa, everyone can agree that Congress is a disaster, and Caddellchanneled Kaus. Erick Erickson highlighted some important inconsistencies in the GOP field, Romney's nose grew, and the former governor made jokes about butts. In our AAA video, Andrew elaborated on his critique of the Catholic Church.

Russia absorbed the Arab Spring, Syrian protestors retaliated with song and mockery, and a sanctuary in Costa Rica gave orphaned monkeys a second chance. We worried there would be no genuine democratic transition in Egypt, rated US leverage in the Middle East, and discussed the implications of Saudi Arabian investment in Twitter. North Korea remained a mystery, the Israeli left was crowded out, and Maliki's government came apart. 

Piers Morgan equivocated, he encountered the "whole new universe" of ethics, and likely voters are unreliable. Thatcher's handbag was her gavel, tobacco posed a colossal threat, and readers reimagined cable. 

Shit black girls say here, supervillain or Newt? quiz here, MHB here, FOTD here, VFYW here, and VFYW contest winner #81 here. Our thriving Dish reader poll here. 

Looking at things
Monday on the Dish, we collected reax to the death of Kim Jong-Il, wondered if the tears were fake, and summoned the ronery song. We delved into the psychology of dictators, charted the dramatic divergence of North and South Korea, and Jim Pethokoukis flipped out. The Dish memorialized Hitch, virtues cohabit with sins, and our readers got to know one another (update here). Ron Paul took the lead in Iowa, he's a demographic dream for the GOP, and news pegs obscured campaign coverage. Gingrich fell fast, he went after the "judicial dictatorship," and even the Rasmussenites fear government passivity. 

Preemptive war made a comeback, the power of denial prevailed in Egypt, and Tahrir erupted once more. We checked in on the gay community in Uganda, and Syrian defectors were executed en masse.

The prison population dwindled in the US, the Freakonomics approach is flawed, and our peach fuzz is perfectly evolved. We sized up the ambitions of Andrew Cuomo, higher education met Moneyball, and health care price controls flopped. Biometric IDs keep things honest, girls are catching up with boys in math, and bikes can save us. In our AAA video, Andrew explained why he opposes criminalizing prejudice. 

Tweet of the day here, creepy ad watch here, MHB here, FOTD here, VFYW here, our year-end lamest GOP jokes contest here, brave highdeas (including emergency texting) here, and Kim Jong-Il looking at things here. 

– M.A.