A highlight from PPP's latest poll:
Other than Santorum's rise the other big story of this week is Paul's fall. He was at 24% earlier in the week but has dropped to 20%. That decline in support coincides with a precipitous drop in his favorability numbers. On our last poll he was at +13 (53/40), but that's gone down 21 points on the margin to -8 (43/51). For all that Paul still has a very decent chance at winning on Tuesday- it just depends on whether his unusual coalition of young voters and non-Republicans really comes out to caucus.
Nate Silver's electoral model now shows Paul, Romney, and Santorum neck and neck:
It is likely that at least one or two more polls will be released on Monday or even on Tuesday morning, which could provide slightly more clarity. It is indisputable, however, that there are at least three plausible winners of the caucuses. As J. Ann Selzer noted after she conducted The Des Moines Register’s poll, slightly different but entirely reasonable assumptions about turnout could tip the advantage to Mr. Romney, Mr. Paul or Mr. Santorum, as could the choices made by undecided voters.
Charles Franklin's estimates have Romney ahead:
If Romney does finish 1st, I would expect everyone else to go to South Carolina, except for Paul and Huntsman. Latest Suffolk poll shows huge Romney lead in NH. You can’t stop him in NH so give it to him and move to his most challenging state of the first four.
(Screenshot from RCP's Iowa poll of polls.)
The Dish 
