Today, the Boston Globe endorsed Jon Huntsman, a mixed blessing for New Hampshire Republicans, but surely a net plus for him. And if he had run a decent campaign and emerged strongly in the debates, you can see how, in an alternative universe, and one I hoped for last summer, this could have been a tipping point. But, sadly, it probably isn't. In the last few polls, Huntsman's support has actually been slipping slightly, and he's being overtaken by Santorum.
What's notable about New Hampshire is Gingrich's collapse over the last month, which wasn't caused in New Hampshire by the Bain Super-PAC. And what's more striking to me is that two candidates have been making steady gains there for the last month at Newt's expense: Romney and Paul. Santorum is soaring, after Iowa, but he still has only half of Paul's support in this libertarian-minded state. Remember also that all these events are currently proportional – so Paul's third and second places add up, especially if you have mastered the caucus process and, unlike some others, actually got on the ballot in every state.
What we're seeing, I think, is Romney as the last, dying gasp of Republican fusionism. The old alliance – free market capitalism, social conservatism and anti-Communism – has morphed into a new one – libertarianism, Christianism and anti-Jihadism. Each faction has become more extreme as they have marinated in their own media complex, and responded to their fantasies about president Obama. And there is therefore no fusion possible between them. Maybe a charismatic figure like Reagan could somehow bind them together again; but such a figure comes along rarely.
Romney's problem is that he understands he has to unite all these strands, but so obviously sees each of them as merely marketing tools for Romney Inc. that he inspires real confidence from none of them. They may get over it. But this feels like a loaf that won't rise in the oven. The fusionist yeast has disappeared. And Obama, far from uniting them all, seems only, in his inimitable way, to drive them into suicidal distraction.
The Dish 