Steve Kornacki expects Ron Paul won't run as a third party candidate because it would damage the presidential aspirations of his son:
[I]f there’s an open presidential nomination in 2016, Rand Paul could be a major factor — starting with the base that his father now enjoys and expanding it in ways he never could. Or maybe he’d have to wait until 2020. Either way, though, it’s not inconceivable that Rand Paul could ultimately mount a successful campaign for the Republican nod. But if the Paul name were to turn into the Republican equivalent of Nader, the fallout could threaten the inroads that Rand has made and his otherwise bright future in the party.
Robert Farley has similar thoughts:
Best case scenario for Rand is that Obama beats Mitt, letting the GOP get even more enraged over the next four years. A Mitt defeat will be blamed on the "moderate," "establishment," elements of the GOP, likely increasing the appeal of a radical outsider. It will depend on the other candidates, but I wouldn’t say he’s guaranteed to lose the nomination in the same sense as his father. I think that he’d be an extremely weak general election candidate, but of course the result of the election will turn mainly on factors that will develop closer to 2016.
(Photo: Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) introduces his father, Republican presidential candidate U.S. Rep Ron Paul (R-TX), at a campaign event during his 'Whistle-stop' tour with at the Steeple Gate inn in January 2, 2012 in Davenport, Iowa. By Win McNamee/Getty Images.)
The Dish 