John Sides and Alex Lundry summarize a recent experiment where they showed GOP voters the candidates' chances, according to Intrade, of winning the nomination and beating Obama:
[Romney's] projected performance against Obama is the best of any candidate (49%) and he is the only one who benefits from providing respondents this poll number. His vote share increases from 27% to 36%. Interestingly, however, the 36% figure is actually lower than was his support among respondents shown only his chance of winning the primary … This could be because the polling numbers were somewhat more equivocal: only 5 points separated Romney from the Republican who is predicted to perform the worst against Obama (Bachmann, at 44%).
In a follow-up, Sides argues that the research shows "[c]ommentators have consistently underestimated Romney’s appeal within the party."
The Dish 