Rasmussen – the second outfit to report polling data after New Hampshire – shows a less dramatic, but still real, shift than the Insider Advantage poll. Before New Hampshire, the GOP-tilted polling outfit put Romney at 27, Santorum at 24 and Gingrich at 18. After New Hampshire, some of Santorum's support has shifted to Newt and Ron: it's now Romney steady at 28, with Gingrich at 21 and Santorum dropping eight to 16. Ron Paul has surged from 5 percent in October to 16 percent today.
The latest ARG poll is even more striking: Paul has surged to 20 percent in South Carolina: a stunning result that overturns a lot of expectations. This military state may actually share the military donors' views and loathe what neoconservatism has done to wreck American influence abroad and fiscal balance at home. So it's 29 – 25 – 20, with a week to go. I'd say any one of those three could win.
What effect will the Bain bomb have? As Bubble would note, who can say? All we know is that Romney was tied with Kennedy in the polls by Labor Day of 1994 in the Massachusetts Senate race in a year that was perilous for Democrats. After the Bain ads, independents fled Romney and Kennedy won by 17 points.
The Dish 
