Nate Silver puts Romney's lead in context:
One way to evaluate the data is through logistic regression analysis, which gives an estimate of how likely a candidate was to win the nomination based on the size of his national polling lead after New Hampshire. The analysis suggests that a 19-point lead in national polls at this stage of the race translates into roughly a 98 percent chance of winning the nomination.
Silver later hedges and concludes that Romney has a better than 90 percent chance at the nomination.
The Dish 
