A Two-Man Race In South Carolina

SC_538

After the flurry of polls this morning, Nate Silver reassesses:

Mr. Gingrich has gained ground in the polls more than Mr. Romney has lost it. Two days ago, our forecast had Mr. Gingrich with 22.6 percent of the vote, so he has gained about 11 points since then. Meanwhile, Mr. Romney’s projection has declined less than 3 points — to 33.6 percent from 36.1 percent — over the same interval. Instead, most of Mr. Gingrich’s gains have come from Rick Santorum and Rick Perry (who today dropped his campaign and endorsed Mr. Gingrich), as well as from undecided voters.