Month: January 2012

Philip Klein hypothesizes: 

It's true that there are states in which Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich can theoretically beat Romney, but if they can't beat him in South Carolina, where will they go from there? Even now, Romney has a 23-point lead nationally, according to Gallup. Sure, perhaps Rep. Ron Paul's fervent supporters can out-hustle Romney's organization in a caucus here or there. But it's also possible that Romney will run the table. Remember, as the field gets narrowed, it'll get a lot harder for Paul to outright win a state, because he'll have to start getting into the 40-50-plus point range. Romney may have had a lot of vulnerabilities going into the GOP nomination battle, but he continues to benefit from weak competition.

Joel Wing argues that the violence this month is nothing out of the ordinary:

January obviously marks an increase in activity for insurgent groups. Now that the United States has withdrawn its forces, and the government is stuck in its latest crisis, the media and some pundits seem to be caught up in characterizing Iraq as unraveling. This ignores the fact that this January mirrors last January in terms of deaths and security incidents, and that Iraq’s politicians have been in one long drawn out dispute since the March 2010 elections. When the month is over, attacks will likely go back to what they were the month before as they have done in the past, and the political parties will continue to argue. Despite all that, life goes on in Iraq. Violence is not as widespread as it use to be, and many Iraqis go about their business no longer affected by it. January unfortunately, is one of those months that militants mark on their calendars each year to try to do their best at killing as many as possible, and sow as much chaos as possible.

(Photo: Iraqis walk past a damaged vehicle close to a mosque following a wave of attacks prior to the storming a police compound in the western Iraqi city of Ramadi, on January 15, 2012. By Azhar Shallal/AFP/Getty Images)

Quin Hillyer wonders if voters in South Carolina will embrace Romney simply because he's expected to win the primary:

[I]f some polls are to be believed, there has been some movement toward Romney even though polls also show South Carolinian Republicans to be, on the whole, more conservative than Romney and long confirmed in being disposed not to be very warm to him. Is this movement just another rush to jump on a bandwagon? If so, why? How does it benefit a primary voter who is NOT a political activist to be an anonymous rider on somebody's bandwagon? I've never understood the mentality of rushing towards a perceived winner just because he is perceived to be a winner. What good does that do?

Jim Antle chips in two cents.

Taylor Marvin analyzes the philosophy of violence in The Dark Knight series:

The Dark Knight … feels disturbingly real. This reality is the film’s greatest achievement, and director Christopher Nolan knows how to use it. Why does the films’ evocation of dread work so well? Because the realism of The Dark Knight’s fiction gut punches us into believing it could actually happen: costumed vigilantes aside, Gotham’s social breakdown isn’t unimaginable in a northern Mexican metropolis. It’s this social breakdown — the loss of government’s monopoly on violence — that’s the film’s central theme. … Bruce Wayne’s motivations are noble, but violence outside of the state monopoly on force is always destabilizing. Nolan’s Batman isn’t a civic-minded champion: he’s a tragic hero.

Turkey isn't happy about Rick Perry's absurd claim that the NATO ally is run by "Islamic terrorists." Juan Cole sighs:

Governor Perry might want to notice that there are many differences between Turkey and Iran. For instance, look at this pdf report on Turkish-US military cooperation and see if that sounds like Iran to you. Turkey still hosts that Incirlik Airbase where the young Rick Perry says he was stationed but where he apparently did not bother to learn anything about his host country. If anything, US-Turkish military relations are on an upswing...Ironically, Perry is doing what he accuses Obama of– making an ally nervous and uncertain. Whereas Obama hasn’t done that, at all.

Larison piles on.

Charles Blow reacts to Gingrich's food stamp comment from last night:

Gingrich seems to understand the historical weight of the view among some southern whites, many of whom have migrated to the Republican party, that blacks are lazy and addicted to handouts. He is able to give voice to those feelings without using those words. He is able to make people believe that a fundamentally flawed and prejudicial argument that demeans minorities is actually for their uplift. It is Gingrich’s gift: He is able to make ill will sound like good will.

Beinart blames Newt's tone-deafness on epistemic closure:

I’m sure Gingrich also sees nothing offensive in calling Obama the "food stamp" president. After all, under Obama the number of people using food stamps has gone up! So because Alan Greenspan presided over predatory lending policies by banks, perhaps we should have called him the "Shylock" chairman of the Federal Reserve. And if child molestations by priests rise on this administration’s watch, perhaps we should call Joseph Biden the "pedophilia" vice president.

Gingrich would never use those phrases, of course, because he’s familiar enough with Jews and Catholics to understand why they’d find them offensive. But for Gingrich—a veteran politician from the state of Georgia, speaking at a debate in South Carolina on Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday—not to understand why calling the first African-American in the Oval Office the "food stamp" president would offend African-Americans is simply amazing. The most plausible explanation is that Gingrich inhabits a cultural and intellectual bubble. A bubble called the Republican Party.

Frum is less charitable:

Food stamp usage is an indicator of an economy in crisis. The non-incumbent party will of course want to use that crisis to arraign the incumbent party and to argue for a change in direction: that's normal politics.

But it's not normal to imply that the people cast into the position where they must use food stamps to feed themselves are somehow the villain of the piece—or to depict blacks as somehow uniquely undeserving of the aid they get. … Shouldn't a man who wants to be president of the whole country show equal understanding of the troubles and dangers facing all those who depend on government assistance: the poor as well as the old, the black as well as the white?

<a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=2452baae30" _mce_href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=2452baae30" >Live Chat: Andrew Sullivan on Obama's Long Game</a>

Heads up: live chatting is imminent. Chris is filtering the questions because I can't answer all of them – but he's not usually benevolent. I'm told the box above is pretty self-explanatory if you want to ask a question. I'll do my best to answer them. Time's up at 4 pm.

Ezra Klein thinks I've "written a defense of Obama's record that is better than anything the campaign has produced itself." His caveat:

America's continuing recovery — and, thus, Obama's reelection — relies on Europe avoiding a total meltdown. If Europe manages its problems and the economy grows steadily in 2012, Sullivan's take on Obama's record is going to find a lot of support. If Europe falls apart and the American recovery slows to a crawl, the retrospective evaluations of Obama's presidency will not be so kind. Somewhat unfairly to Obama, this isn't in his control, and there's no reason that the success of his policies should be judged based on the unrelated actions of the European Central Bank. But no one said elections are fair.

I agree Europe is the wild card. All I can say is that the narrative I laid for Obama in October 2007 was regarded as delusional then. And it's the substance that I want to focus on, not the luck. Obama's responsible for what he has made of the awful times he has been president in. And whatever happens, judging that correctly is important.