Obama’s Long Game, Ctd: The Killing Of Bin Laden

There's been some more pushback from Exum against my claim that Obama – and not Bush – deserves credit for killing bin Laden in such a daring and valuable raid. Andrew argues that Bush's public pronouncements that bin Laden was no longer relevant was psy-ops, trying to fool the enemy, not actual policy. But he cannot argue that Bush didn't allow Osama bin Laden to escape in Tora Bora – one of the biggest mistakes of the entire war. Meanwhile, Dan Froomkin – fired for being critical of the war by the WaPo neocon brigade – showed that Bush's decision to focus elsewhere wasn't merely rhetorical:

For more than three years [after Tora Bora], Bush treated bin Laden a lot like the wizards in the Harry Potter books treat He Who Must Not Be Named. In the summer of 2005, Bush started invoking bin Laden again — but this time, to win support for his Iraq policy, which was very much on the ropes. "Hear the words of Osama bin Laden," Bush said, "'This Third World War is raging' in Iraq."

By 2006, on the stump for his fellow Republicans, Bush was citing bin Laden extensively. The president cast bin Laden as the oracular leader of a global movement, and warned of the possibility of an Islamic caliphate "stretching from Europe to North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia" — an unsubstantiated fantasy with only one thing going for it: It served the political agendas of both men.

Meanwhile, in an Oval Office session that same month, Bush told to a group of conservative columnists that focusing on bin Laden didn’t fit with his military plans. Putting "100,000 of our special forces stomping through Pakistan in order to find bin Laden is just simply not the strategy that will work," he explained.

So he talked up bin Laden for domestic political reasons, while abandoning the hunt in reality. The lack of troops at Tora Bora was an inexcusable failure. Then there was the deeper strategic decision to focus resources on Iraq, not Af-Pak. Bush then bungled putting pressure on the Pakistanis to help get the mass-murderer:

American intelligence officials say that the Qaeda hunt in Pakistan, code-named Operation Cannonball by the CIA in 2006, was often undermined by bitter disagreements within the Bush administration and within the intelligence agency, including about whether American commandos should launch ground raids inside the tribal areas…In order to keep pressure on the Pakistanis about the tribal areas, officials decided to have Bush raise the issue in personal phone calls with Musharraf.

The conversations backfired. Two former United States government officials say they were surprised and frustrated when instead of demanding action from Musharraf, Bush instead repeatedly thanked him for his contributions to the war on terror. "He never pounded his fist on the table and said, 'Pervez you have to do this,' " said a former senior intelligence official who saw transcripts of the phone conversations. But another senior administration official defended the president, saying that Bush had not gone easy on the Pakistani leader.

In 2006, Bush formally closed down the hunt for bin Laden:

The Central Intelligence Agency has closed a unit that for a decade had the mission of hunting Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants, intelligence officials confirmed Monday. The unit, known as Alec Station, was disbanded late last year and its analysts reassigned within the C.I.A. Counterterrorist Center…The realignment reflects a view that Al Qaeda is no longer as hierarchical as it once was, intelligence officials said, and a growing concern about Qaeda-inspired groups that have begun carrying out attacks independent of Mr. bin Laden and his top deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Almost immediately upon coming to office, Obama dramatically improved military-intelligence cooperation, focused much more on Af-Pak, and briefed by Panetta in his first months, reversed course on finding and killing OBL:

In June, 2009, [Obama] drafted a memo instructing Panetta to create a “detailed operation plan” for finding the Al Qaeda leader and to “ensure that we have expended every effort.” Most notably, the President intensified the C.I.A.’s classified drone program; there were more missile strikes inside Pakistan during Obama’s first year in office than in George W. Bush’s eight.

Now, the defenses of Bush. Exum:

I have a very small amount of personal experience with special operations in Afghanistan during the Bush Administration years. Cross-border operations into Pakistan were never explicitly ruled out. Rather, they were treated with all the gravity they deserved. Yes, you can go into Pakistan if it means killing or capturing Osama bin Laden. But if you go into Pakistan, crash a helicopter or get into a gunfight with Pakistani police and don't get bin Laden … well, you can imagine what the costs would be to U.S. policy in the region. That was the logic in 2004, and as far as I can tell based on subsequent research, that remained the logic in 2011 and even today.

But that was precisely the logic that prevailed with vice-president Joe Biden who, as I revealed in my "Obama's Long Game" essay, and has now been confirmed, argued against the raid. It was Obama who made that dangerous, ballsy call. It was Obama who argued in a 2008 debate with McCain that he would be prepared to ignore Pakistan and launch a raid in that country if OBL was found there and the US could get him. He was derided as "naive" and without the experience to be commander-in-chief. McCain specifically said he would not authorize such a mission. (The self-serving notion that torture got bin Laden was made by the torture enthusiasts, Thiessen and Yoo. Previous Dish rebuttals here and here, and bonus ones from Adam Serwer here and here.)

Look: no president remakes the entire intelligence and military apparatus and there's no question that Obama inherited a huge intelligence and military apparatus from Bush which inevitably played a part in the intelligence behind the raid and the capacity to carry it out so well. But from insisting on a new priority on getting bin Laden in 2009 to the decision to launch the raid, against much advice, and even personally insisting on extra helicopters to increase the odds of success: these were all Barack Obama's choices.

As I said, if he were a Republican, he'd be on Mount Rushmore by now.

Better Ideas Through Angry Birds

Jonah Lehrer examines the research behind creativity. I'm biased since I have become an Angry Birds addict. And I sometimes wonder – as I'm in mid-blog and take a break – if my web-addled brain is self-medicating. Maybe it is. One study had two groups brainstorm solutions to simple problems. The group that played a silly video game for two minutes came up with their most innovative ideas about 55% of the time – more than double the other group's 20%:

How can the rest of us get better at identifiying our best ideas? One key lesson from this research is that distraction and dilettantism come with real benefits, as they give the unconscious a chance to assess its new ideas. This reminds me of a wise piece of advice from Zadie Smith, which she dished out to aspiring novelists:

When you finish your novel, if money is not a desperate priority, if you do not need to sell it at once or be published that very second — put it in a drawer. For as long as you can manage. A year or more is ideal — but even three months will do…You need a certain head on your shoulders to edit a novel, and it’s not the head of a writer in the thick of it, nor the head of a professional editor who’s read it in twelve different versions.

Smith, in other words, is telling writers to forget about their work, to give the mind some time to weigh the worth of all those words. And that’s because we have no idea which ideas are worthwhile, at least at first.

By the way, the latest installment of Angry Birds, based on the Chinese New Year, kicks ass. I have three stars on every level on every game, including the Seasons and Rio versions. What I do know is go through all of them, trying to up my scores and crawl up the global winner list. If only all those South Korean schoolkids would just give me a break.

Paul Quietly Advances

John Hudson tracks waning mainstream media coverage of Paul: 

[M]edia coverage of GOP candidate Ron Paul is back to nearly nothing, according to Nr quiz the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism. This week, less than 5 percent of all campaign stories focused on Paul, the lowest point since Dec. 11. when strong performances in Iowa and New Hampshire helped stoke some interest. Over the same period, Paul's performance in the polls has only improved, going from the single digits to 12.7 percent, putting him nearly even with Rick Santorum, in the current RealClearPolitics average.

Grace Wyler explains why Paul is effectively skipping Florida: 

Senior advisors for the campaign say that they remain focused on picking up as many delegates as possible — and that means allocating its resources efficiently. …The Paul campaign is looking ahead to Nevada, Minnesota, and Colorado, all of which will vote in caucuses next month. That means limited press exposure for the candidate, but the campaign hopes that a win — or strong second place finish — in any of those states will turn the conversation back to Paul, while also racking up all-important delegates. "Between February 4 and February 7 more delegates will be chosen than in Florida, South Carolina and New Hampshire combined. Florida lost half its delegates, so we're not that worried," [campaign manager John] Tate said, noting that, so far, only 37 of the 2,000 convention delegates have been selected. 

5 – 1

That’s the degree of Romney’s media domination over Gingrich in Florida, according to TPM:

According to my Democratic source, the total ad spending through Tuesday in Florida by the Romney campaign and its allied super PAC, Restore Our Future, is $15,340,000. The total spending for Gingrich’s campaign and his super PAC, Winning Our Future, is $3,390,000.

Newt has been getting bigger crowds. What he really needs are more billionaire Greater Israel fanatics.

Does Newt Know How To Quit?

The Daily Caller obtained a Gingrich memo mapping out the campaign's strategy through Super Tuesday. John Heilemann suspects that Gingrich is "mad and mental enough to fight on long after Florida":

Pledges to continue the fight unabated in the face of harsh and/or humiliating outcomes are staples of presidential campaigns. And they are also patently meaningless. (Please recall Jon Huntsman's feigned brio on the night of the New Hampshire primary — and his departure from the race a few days later.) But in Gingrich's case, he might be serious, so much has he come to despise Romney and the Republican Establishment that has brought down on him a twenty-ton shithammer in Florida, and so convinced is he of his own Churchillian greatness and world-historical destiny.

Kevin Drum seconds him. I guess I'm biased as I really enjoy a good political bloodbath. And during this campaign, I've come to loathe Romney almost as much as his Republican peers do.

How Many Jobs Did Romney Create At Bain?

Steve Kaplan tries to do the math:

Among Bain Capital’s investments under Romney, the large job creators are clearly Staples and Sports Authority. Both of these were small, young companies when Bain 6a00d83451c45669e20167610eb4f7970b-800wiCapital invested in them. Bain invested in Staples when it had only one store, so there were likely fewer than 200 employees at the time. Bain appears to have invested in the Sports Authority when it had fewer than ten stores. Unfortunately, there are no public data to say how many people were employed at that time. At the end of 1998, Staples had more than 42,000 employees, Sports Authority had almost 14,000, Gartner Group had almost 3,000, and Steel Dynamics had over 500. So at the beginning of 1999, when Romney left Bain Capital, these four companies alone employed almost 60,000 total employees. While some of the job growth at Sports Authority came from acquisitions, there is no doubt that these four companies created tens of thousands of jobs over the period.

Here's the problem with that calculation:

Romney is effectively taking credit for every job Staples has ever created … even though Bain provided just 10 percent of the seed money for the company.

Here's how Jonathan Last put it in his recent article:

We don’t credit the jobs created by McDonald’s, Home Depot, and Apple to the money men. We credit them to Ray Kroc, Bernard Marcus, Arthur Blank, Steve Jobs, and Steve Wozniak. Because those men had the ideas, ran the operations, and assumed most of the risk. It’s unclear why we should regard Romney’s role with Staples any differently.

How Romney used to talk about his job creation:

[During the 1994 Senate campaign Romney] emphasized that he always used the word "helped" and didn’t take full credit for the jobs. "That’s why I’m always very careful to use the words ‘help create,' " he acknowledged. "Bain Capital, or Mitt Romney, ‘helped create’ over 10,000 jobs. I don’t take credit for the jobs at Staples. I helped create the jobs at Staples."

(Photo: By Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Dreaming Of An Innovation Nation

Innovation_Nation

Alex Tabarrok wants to increase innovation spending:

We like to think of ourselves as an innovation nation but our government is a warfare-welfare state. To build an economy for the 21st century we need to increase the rate of innovation and to do that we need to put innovation at the center of our national vision. Innovation, however, is not a priority of our massive federal government. Nearly two-thirds of the U.S. federal budget, $2.2 trillion annually, is spent on just the four biggest warfare and welfare programs, Medicaid, Medicare, Defense and Social Security. In contrast the National Institutes of Health, which funds medical research, spends $31 billion annually, and the National Science Foundation spends just $7 billion.

(Chart from Marginal Revolution)

How The Web Watches TV

Pivoting off Tristan Louis' list of the top television shows and whether they're available to stream online, Tim Carmody draws a distinction:

With live television, we flip; with video on demand, we binge. This means that shows have to catch and hold our attention in very different ways — not just over the commercial, but from episode to episode, season to season, and from television to videogames, Facebook, or whatever else might capture our attention on a web-connected device.

Crucially, these differences mean that we gravitate to different content. Many of the most popular, highest-rated shows hold relatively little appeal if seen through a video-on-demand streaming service. The converse is also true; some of the most successful streaming shows (like NBC’s Community) struggle to find a corresponding audience on broadcast television.

He quotes Andy Forssell, a senior VP for Hulu:

We’ll look for content that’s beloved not beliked. The content that really pays off and punches above its weight in our ecosystem is a show that somebody’s going to see and then they want to go e-mail five of their friends or get on Facebook and post about it…[W]e’re much more excited about Community [than Two and a Half Men] because while it’s a smaller audience, it’s an audience that self-organizes online.