Al Qaeda’s African Turn

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by Zack Beauchamp

Al-Qaeda boss Ayman al-Zawahiri decided to formally merge the group with Somali affiliate al-Shabaab. Christopher Anzalone sees it as a desperate grab for relevancy by al-Qaeda central:

The issuing of this announcement now, during a period when both AQC and Al-Shabab are facing mounting pressures, is telling…AQC, faced with the loss of its founder, Usama bin Laden, and a senior operational leader and ideologue, ‘Atiyyatullah al-Libi (Jamal Ibrahim Ishaywi al-Misrati), last year is reeling from losses inflicted by U.S. drone missile strikes and is struggling to remain a relevant force.  Of the two groups, it arguably has the most to gain from formalizing its relationship with Al-Shabab, which continues to control vast swaths of territory in central and southern Somalia.  The insurgent movement or its allies also reportedly have made significant inroads into parts of northern Somalia, both in the autonomous region of Puntland and a contested area between Puntland and the self-declared republic of Somaliland.  Despite significant military setbacks since last spring, Al-Shabab remains a potent force within the country and its military power, even if it is in decline, remains the subject of pride for the Sunni jihadi current. 

Ackerman has a similar take. Bronwyn Bruton and Peter Pham want the US to turn al-Shabaab against itself:

The best that Washington can do now is to close the book on its ill-fated war in Somalia. The easiest way to do this would be to signal a willingness to live with al Shabaab's disaffected nationalist branch, provided that they open the parts of Somalia that they control to humanitarian relief and make a break with the group's hardcore leadership and its ambitions of transnational jihad. This will not solve the problem of keeping hardliners from branching out and creating a regional terrorist threat — that ship has already sailed. But it is the only way to end the conflict in Somalia.

(Photo: Ugandan soldiers serving with the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) 33rd Battalion are silhouetted against the skyline at sundown while atop a partially destroyed building in the Yaaqshiid District of Mogadishu on November 25, 2011. AMISOM forces have pushed Al Shabaab militants beyond the city's northern fringes to the outskirts of the Somalia seaside capital. By Stuart Price/AFP/Getty Images.)