by Chris Bodenner
A reader says yes:
The conclusion that a third-party candidate would not perform well in this year's presidential election, as stated in the column by Alan I. Abramowitz to which you linked, does not withstand serious scrutiny. As I explain in a recently released research paper [pdf], and as summarized in this post, it is probable that a respected, centrist candidate would eclipse the 18.9% of the vote that Ross Perot captured in 1992.
Mr. Abramowitz’s analysis is deeply flawed. First, it is based on a single factor: partisan identification. However, partisanship is just one of several factors that cause – and certainly not the most important factor that causes – independent voting.
A survey of applicable academic research establishes that the success of an independent presidential candidate primarily depends on four factors: (1) whether the candidate’s campaign is well-funded; (2) the degree to which voters have grown cynical and politically-alienated; (3) whether voters like, i.e., feel warmly towards, the Democratic and Republican candidates; and (4) whether voters like the independent candidate. While one cannot profess to be able to accurately predict the future, it appears likely that, in 2012, these drivers of independent voting behavior will align in an unprecedented manner that could propel an independent presidential candidate to unexpected heights. Specifically:
– The Internet has democratized fundraising and enables candidates who capture the imagination of the public to raise large sums of money outside traditional party structures. The advent of Super-PACs also would enable an independent candidate to more easily raise sizeable campaign contributions. Thus, a respected independent candidate is now capable of waging a competitive presidential campaign, irrespective of his or her private wealth.
– Recent polling data establish that the electorate has recently become profoundly alienated. Voters’ trust in the federal government has plummeted in recent years. Large majorities of voters are pessimistic about the future and disgruntled about the government’s handling of salient issues, including, most importantly, the economy, job creation and long-term deficit reduction. Today’s political alienation is unprecedented in the modern era. It appeared before the 2008 economic downturn, persists notwithstanding improving economic conditions and thus reflects widespread and engrained insecurity regarding the federal government’s ability to solve problems.
– Current polling data indicates that the major parties’ presidential nominees will be relatively unpopular. President Obama’s approval ratings are low-to-middling. The candidates vying for the GOP nomination are considered uniformly unimpressive by most Americans, and no single candidate appears capable of garnering support from a sizeable plurality of Republican primary voters. The "thermometer ratings" of all Republican candidates GOP candidates – an important measurement of likeability – are significantly lower than those received by past presidential candidates.
– There are several potential respected centrist candidates who, if they were to run as independents, likely would be viewed favorably by the public. Further, because these individuals could "sit out" the primary process, they would be able avoid the negative media attention and criticism typically received by presidential candidates who must compete for party nominations.
– Mr. Abramowitz’s discussion of partisanship, which is in fact an indirect indication of political alienation, is misleading. Contrary to what he says, we are in an age of ever-declining – not increasing – partisanship. The same ANES survey data on which he relies showed that, in 2010, a full 43% of Americans are functionally independent, while only 25% of Americans identify themselves as "strong" or "not strong" Republicans and 32% of Americans identify themselves as "strong" or "not strong" Democrats. It is true, as Mr. Abramowitz suggests, that only a small percentage of the electorate has no partisan orientation whatsoever. But the percentage of voters who think of themselves as Republican or Democrat, as opposed to independent, has declined steadily for the last forty years. Today, a plurality of Americans do not identify with either party, according to numerous polls.
In this era of dysfunctional partisanship, the status quo so vigorously protected by the two major parties is intolerable. As I discuss in this post, we desperately need a centrist independent candidate.
The Dish 