Francis J. Gavin and James B. Steinberg want cocksure pundits to remember how little they know about the consequences of bombing Iran:
[T]he "right" answer, but the one you will never read on blogs or hear on any cable news network, is that we simply cannot know ahead of time, with any degree of certainty, what the optimal policy will turn out to be. Why? Even if forecasters could provide probabilities about the likelihood of a narrow, specific event, it is simply beyond the capacity of human foresight to make confident predictions about the short- and long-term global consequences of a military strike against Iran.
This is what I called the "conservatism of doubt." But the neoconservatives are not conservatives. They are radicals whose motto, as embraced by Bill Kristol, is always "Toujours l'audace!" The quote is usually associated with Georges Danton, one of the most radical and murderous of the leaders of the French Revolution, and King Frederick of Prussia, a man dedicated to the use of military violence.
How Kristol passes himself off as a conservative in any meaningful sense is preposterous. But he's been pulling this scam for years and the hacks in Washington don't know enough history or political philosophy or actual conservatism to challenge him.
The Dish 