The Delegate Count

Nate Silver breaks it down. Bottom line:

[T]he notion that the Republican nomination process is simply a delegate-counting contest is correct on technical grounds, but somewhat misses the forest for the trees. Quite a lot of delegates to the Republican convention may go there unpledged to any candidate, or will have the wherewithal and the legal standing to change their minds. If one candidate holds a lead in the delegate count, but another seems to have the clearest mandate from Republican voters, the delegate math could change quickly.