Simon Jackman compares Romney's share of the "social conservative" vote to Santorum's (where the Y axis = probability of support):
Why this is important:
Social issues energize and mobilize voters that might otherwise be disengaged from politics. Social conservatives are flocking to Santorum, propelling him to a commanding position in many national polls tracking Republican primary support.?
But socially conservative positions are, well, conservative, relative to the views of the population at large, and even other Republican primary voters. Santorum’s success now — to the extent that it relies on giving political oxygen to a conservative agenda on social issues — spells trouble for the Republicans in the general election. Before then, the results shown here would suggest that Republicans will struggle to unite behind either Romney or Santorum, or anyone else for that matter.
Romney is clearly the more electable candidate, if his supporters’ positions on social issues are any guide. But can he prevail? And if Romney is the Republican nominee, will social conservatives turn out to support him in November??
The Dish 