
David A. Graham thinks he can climb out of it. Andrew Rugg doesn't:
Romney’s current 17-point gap between his unfavorable and favorable rating spells trouble. Americans aren’t likely to vote for someone they don’t like personally. But can Mitt Romney change his fortunes and make himself more likable? All the TV ads in the world aren’t likely to do the trick. George W. Bush in 2000 was the most successful in increasing his favorability. He gained five points between March 2000 (57 percent) and late October 2000 (62 percent) in Pew’s polling. The largest overall change occurred in 1992, when George H.W. Bush lost 14 points between March and October. Even if Mitt was able to “pull a George W. Bush” he would end the general election with a favorable rating of 37 percent. Based on the historical data alone, it seems highly unlikely that he could get elected with those numbers.