Right now, Obama is winning in all of the swing states against the presumptive GOP nominee, Romney. He's pulled even in Florida, he has a comfy 4 point lead in Virginia (with one recent poll showing him ahead by 17!); his margin in Pennsylvania is growing; it's tied in North Carolina; he's ahead in Ohio. The president's margins over the other GOP nominees is even bigger.
I suspect it's because of the GOP primary campaign exposing the flaws of their candidates and the contraception debate highlighting their reflexive religious fundamentalism. But that could wane if Romney does well tomorrow, stanches the bleeding and somehow manages to unite his party. Working against him is a slowly recovering economy, and high grades for Obama's foreign policy. If Romney had shown any signs of improving as a candidate, as distinguished from getting more endorsements, I'd say he could recover by the summer.
But very few candidates have gone into the general election with the kind of unfavorable numbers Romney now has. Unless there's another Romney under the plastic, they will be hard to shift. I mean: how do you win when half the country doesn't, you know, like you?
The Dish 