Gary Younge explains why a GOP victory is "somewhere between a distinct possibility and a likelihood":
True, the employment outlook is improving. Sadly for Obama, that's not the best economic indicator for electoral success. For that, most political economists track real disposable personal income growth per capita, or what the average person has left after tax and inflation. For the first 11 quarters of his presidency, the RDPI has stood at -0.4%. Obama, in short, is digging himself out of a very large hole. The question is whether he has a shovel-ready solution capable of digging him out fast enough.
Jamelle Bouie piles on, armed with the WaPo's poll this morning:
With 46 percent approval to 50 percent disapproval, public assessment of Obama’s job performance has returned to its usual place just below the surface. Indeed, in a head-to-head matchup with Mitt Romney—the likely GOP nominee—President Obama loses, 47 percent to 49 percent. Against Rick Santorum, Obama has a scant three-point lead. The Washington Post attributes this drop to rising gas prices, which seems likely—the president’s standing has declined at both the same time that gas prices have gone up and Republicans have made it an issue.
The gas price is also part of Netanyahu's strategy for defeating Obama. I agree that we are probably currently witnessing a nadir for the GOP, given their appallingly wince-inducing primary campaign, and their recent falling straight into the contraception trap. And there's a chance that Romney could effectively end the campaign this week if he were to win in Mississippi and Alabama in a split electorate. And Romney, I suspect, will likely run the most dishonest, distorting, polarizing campaign he can.
My view remains that Obama needs to embrace radical tax reform and long-term debt reduction to buttress his credible claim to have inherited a catastrophe and turned it slowly around.
(Chart of model based on Real Disposable Personal Income's predictiveness by Harry Enten)
The Dish 