Despite a recent study finding that congressional supporters of healthcare reform paid a price for their votes, Jonathan Bernstein doubts that Obamacare will noticeably hurt Obama in November:
[T]he study found that healthcare hurt Democrats by making people think they were more liberal than they otherwise would have thought. So the question is: To what extent has ACA changed people’s opinions about Barack Obama? My guess is that whatever the answer to that might be, it’s a lot less than the extent to which it changed people’s views of their Member of Congress because it has to compete with so much other information.