Michael Tesler claims it’s not his Mormonism:
[T]he evidence suggests that Evangelical opposition to Mitt Romney’s bid for the GOP nomination is rooted in perceptions that he is not sufficiently conservative on social issues, rather than in aversion to his religious faith.
Not to belabor a point, but there is nothing conservative about instantly reversing decades of settled law on abortion and criminalizing it federally, effectively divorcing thousands of gay couples, and rejecting out of hand the massive accretion of scientific evidence for man-made climate change. If evangelicals are not rejecting Romney because of Mormonism – and who would admit that in a poll anyway? – they are rejecting him for his insufficient radicalism.
Well, we’ll see tonight. It’s a real mystery, given the polling weirdness in the Deep South. We may see the primary effectively concluded tonight – or thrown into yet more agonized confusion.