TNR is holding a symposium on the topic. Steve Coll's view:
My fear is that the center will not hold when 2014 arrives. All this technocratic planning on transition and security handover—that whole narrative—depends on there being a political center and a government that’s unified enough, with security forces that aren’t crumbling, to prevent an ethnic-based civil war that’s even worse than the one we have right now. It’s important to start thinking ahead about some of those political questions, and I don’t see that happening right now. The last few years, the White House has been sticking to its plan, but it’s pointless to couple that outward resolve with an internal refusal to deal with reality, which is what I’m afraid is going on.
The Dish 