Elizabeth Dickinson draws lessons from Mali's fate:
The combination of these two things—weak democracy and dysfunctional security systems—has provoked not one but four coups in the last few years in the region. Niger, Mauritania, and Guinea saw similar (though of course not identical) events; Burkina Faso also saw a failed coup attempt. It has produced, in other words, the Colonel Coup syndrome that I described in 2010: middle-ranking officers with little to lose who are willing to take matters into their own hands. Generals would never be the coup-makers; they are usually close to the regime. Lower ranks don't have the resources. The middle understands what the army is up against—and how poorly equipped the system is to fight back. Sometimes, they think the only option is to bring the system down.
The Dish 