Steve Kornacki draws a parallel to HW’s choice in 1988:
Like Romney, Bush came to the race with a well-documented moderate/liberal past that he tried to pretend didn’t exist. Conservatives didn’t trust him, but he took all of the positions he wanted them to take, and they ultimately consented to his nomination. Then, when Bush began looking for a running-mate, they reminded him who was boss. The Bush campaign floated names like Bob and Elizabeth Dole, Alan Simpson, Pete Domenici, and Nancy Kassebaum as prospective VP’s. This is not what the right wanted to hear. … It was the pressure to appease voices like these that led Bush to choose a 41-year-old Indiana senator named Dan Quayle. The immediate reaction from conservatives was glee. Then Quayle opened his mouth, and the rest is history.
Jamelle Bouie reminds us how the veep selection process can make or break a politician:
Remember, in the modern era, it’s rare for a losing Republican vice presidential nominee to become the nominee in a later election. Dan Quayle, for example, is a punchline, not a presidential candidate, and the same goes for the most recent member of the club, Sarah Palin. Which is to say that, in a world where Republicans don’t see a future for Romney, we should expect the vice presidential "race" to become a microcosm of the nomination contest, ambitious Republicans keep themselves out of the running, and leave the field to second and third string politicians who have nothing to lose from a defeat in November.
Earlier veep speculation on Paul Ryan, Rob Portman, Bob McDonnell and Marco Rubio.