Is Libya Sliding Into Chaos?

by Zack Beauchamp

In a piece assessing the state of the Arab Spring more broadly, Mohammed Ayoob worries:

The situation in Libya is even more precarious than in Egypt with the very unity of the state in jeopardy. Unlike Egypt, which is a relatively homogeneous society, regional and tribal rivalries exacerbated by the chaos accompanying the fall of the Qaddafi regime threaten to tear Libya apart. The writ of what passes for the central government does not run too far and already voices have been raised in the eastern part of the country demanding autonomy, a possible code word for independence. The fact that foreign intervention played a critical role in regime change in Libya also detracts from the legitimacy of the successor government and makes it more susceptible to domestic challenges.

Alex Warren gives a more optimistic take:

Libya has not descended into anarchy or some kind of ‘meltdown’, as some have concluded. Rather, recent events are symptomatic of a weak state structure, a surplus of guns, a long history of feuds and an atmosphere of suspicion and confusion, and a long history of feuds between different local groups which are now free to escalate alarmingly quickly. They are problematic but do not pose an existential threat to the country…unlike many other fragile states – the government theoretically has the financial means to buy stability, whether by integrating former fighters into the armed forces or purchasing weapons at inflated prices. But to persuade many people to give up their guns, the nascent government will first have to prove it can provide security – and resolving the situation in Zuwara is another big test in that process.

(Photo: Black smoke is seen rising from the Libyan village of Regdalin on April 4, 2012 at the front line after clashes the day before between Zuwara fighters and neighboring villages in western Libya. Former rebels from the western town of Zuwara have clashed sporadically with fighters from the nearby towns of Regdalin and Jamil since April 2, despite efforts by the interim Libyan authorities to mediate a lasting truce. The clashes have left up to 18 people killed, according to officials. By Imed Lamloum/AFP/Getty Images.)