Open-Source Intelligence In China

David Axe delves into the fascinating world of "forumers", or Chinese web-obsessives who post about military developments on forums:

Even with hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of satellites and other spy gear, Washington still can’t peer inside buildings in another country or read the minds of foreign officials, scientists, and engineers to predict the emergence of new technologies. A young man with a cellphone camera and an Internet connection can take the U.S. intelligence establishment to school.

It’s a bigger problem than many people realize. "The Pentagon was not just behind the curve on the J-20 [stealth fighter]," Feng, the U.S.-based forumer, wrote in an email. "Their reports on the PLA navy basically have not changed that much, even though the kind of buildup we are seeing in the PLAN requires a lot of adjustment." In other words, the Chinese military is developing fast—too fast for the Pentagon to keep up. With their many eyes and ears, and their 24/7 schedule, the forumers are in a better position to tap the constant stream of new information. "Chinese forumers and bloggers do not seem to be aware of how influential they are,"…

Axe also raises the possibility that the Chinese government is using the forumers as pawns in a propaganda campaign with the US.

(Video: From a series of leaked footage of the J-20 that took the Pentagon by surprise last year)