A hefty new report paints an ugly picture:
The new forecast comes from a CDC and Duke University report alleging that within two decades, American obesity rates will top 42 percent, saddling the U.S. healthcare system with another 32 million obese people. Eleven percent of all Americans will be considered "severely obese," with body mass indexes (BMI) of 40 or higher. At a BMI of 40, a 5-foot 9-inch person would weigh more than 270 pounds.
L.V. Anderson notes that obesity forecasts tend to be slightly overstated:
They’re usually too large, but not by much. In 2003, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted that 40 percent of Americans would be obese by 2010. The actual 2010 adult obesity rate was 35.7 percent [PDF]. … Researchers sometimes have to hedge their bets because they don’t trust people to be honest about how fat they are. A 2009 report [PDF] estimated that American obesity rates in 2018 could be anywhere between 38 and 47.5 percent; the study’s authors attribute that nearly 10-point margin to “the tendency of individuals to understate their weight in telephone surveys.”
The budgetary stakes are high:
Slowing the rising rates of obesity in this country by just 1 percent a year over the next two decades would slice the costs of health care by $85 billion. Keep obesity rates where they are now — well below a 33 percent increase that's been expected by some — and the savings would hit nearly $550 billion over the same 20 years.
The Dish 