The Syrian Spark, Ctd

Exum plays down Mead's concerns that the Syrian conflict could ignite a broader regional war:

For civil war to resume in Lebanon, factional leaders would have to calculate that wider clashes would carry benefits that outweigh the costs of a broader conflict, but there is no evidence that even one of Lebanon’s major sectarian leaders believes this. In fact, none of Lebanon’s sectarian leaders have an interest in this kind of fighting growing into something larger. …

In Iraq, meanwhile, it is also possible that Sunni militants might infiltrate across the border from Syria and wreak havoc. Again, the concern will not so much be that extremist acts will actually challenge the balance of power or start a larger conflict in Iraq, but rather that such actions might cause Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government to adopt even more heavy-handed policies toward its political enemies.