The Princeton Election Consortium relies on Pollster.com's data and is best known for what it calls a "meta-analysis", which is viewing the election entirely through the meta-prism of the Electoral College, rather than state or national polls. They now put the odds of an Obama victory this fall at 10 – 1 – more emphatic than Nate Silver's 7 – 3 odds. They got 2004 and 2008 dead-on. What strikes me, however, is their analysis of the Bain ads. Here's what they find:
Since the Bain ads started running, Obama's lead in the Electoral College has increased by 3 percentage points to 5 percent. And the week of Romney's foreign tour saw Obama's odds sky-rocket. Here's their probability of electoral vote outcomes as of now:
Everything can change. But this is a big hill for Romney to climb.
The Dish 