Sargent explains why “the Obama team is cautiously confident”:
The Romney camp seems to be hoping for a big, late break of undecided voters his way. But Dems remain convinced they understand who these voters are and what motivates them better than the Romney team does — and don’t see a way that these voters break to Romney in large enough numbers to overcome a two or three point deficit in the key battlegrounds.
“The question is, Is Romney going to get enough of the undecided vote to overcome a two or three point deficit in the battle ground states?” Plouffe told me. “Most assuredly not.”
Silver likewise suspects that Obama is now the favorite:
Being only tied in the polls immediately after his own convention is unambiguously a bearish sign for Mr. Romney — and probably the most tangible sign to date that Mr. Obama is the favorite.
That’s my sense as well after the botched Tampa event. We have two scenarios, it seems to me. 1. The Charlotte convention, if it keeps up the momentum of last night, could help Obama break away; or 2. Everything comes down to the debates.
The Dish 