Decades, says Charles Kenny:
[E]ven absent deep structural reforms, there’s a strong likelihood that China’s economy will maintain high levels of growth for the foreseeable future. Economic historian and Nobel laureate Robert Fogel argues (PDF) there is certainly the potential for China to continue growing at 8 percent until 2030. Despite an aging (PDF) population, there are still opportunities for more adults to work. And more of that labor will likely move into more productive sectors over time—out of agriculture and into manufacturing and services. These two factors alone could account for 30 percent of the country’s continued growth, Fogel suggests.
There are also considerable opportunities to increase labor productivity through education. From 1990 to 2004, China’s college enrollment rate increased sixfold—but it’s still far behind Western levels, so there’s room for continued improvement.
Earlier Dish on Chinese decline here.
The Dish 