Will Obama’s Bounce Hold?

Joseph Cera provides reason to think so:

Once a cognitive investment has been made in a particular point of view, confirmation bias comes into play when new information is encountered.  Over the last two decades, researchers have repeatedly demonstrated that individuals discount or ignore incoming information that conflicts with a pre-existing viewpoint (Ditto and Lopez 1992; Edwards and Smith 1996; Taber and Lodge 2006).  Recent work by Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler has shown that in some instances, exposure to new information that contradicts previously held political views can actually trigger an intensified attachment to those old views—a “backfire effect”.  There is still a lot to learn about this phenomenon, but evidence suggests that the process of constructing counterarguments to newly encountered incongruent information leads individuals to develop a greater degree of mental organization and structure in support of their original beliefs than they normally would if left unchallenged.

Recently, Aaron Weinschenk and I have presented evidence that voters have made these types of cognitive investments in messages delivered during past conventions, and that once made these investments are resilient and in some cases strengthen under the pressure of subsequent conflicting information.