Eric McGhee has a big bucket of iced water for Democratic loyalists:
Pollster suggests that if the Democrats win every toss-up, they will gain 11 seats. We can also look at expectations of handicappers, which are often quite accurate. For example, take Larry Sabato’s House forecasts. If we assume that the Democrats win every seat that is solidly, likely, or leaning Democratic as well as half of the 14 toss-ups, then they would control 196 seats, for a gain of 3. If they win every toss-up, they would gain 10 seats. The Cook Political Report suggests something similar. If the Democrats won all of the seats they are favored to win, as well as every toss-up, they would gain 14 seats.
So while Pollster, Sabato, and Cook can suggest larger Democratic gains than our model predicts, they currently suggest little chance that the Democrats will take back the House. Moreover, their largest gains assume a sweep for Democrats of all the toss-up races; without that clean sweep, their predictions are entirely in line with our own.
The Dish 