The sane Israelis (and there are, mercifully many in the IDF and Mossad) have leaked an internal memo arguing that sanctions are working and tougher ones could work even more. This puts Bibi's speech yesterday in a different light, doesn't it? Matt Duss:
If Iran is indeed governed by apocalyptic crazies, as [Netanyahu] claims, why would the more stringent sanctions or threats that Netanyahu favors be expected to dissuade the undeterrable from their course? As a former Israeli intelligence official critical of Netanyahu’s approach put it to me this summer, “You can’t say, ‘More sanctions are good, but ineffective.’ It’s a contradiction.”
But no one is talking about the settlements, are they? Or the steady on-the-ground building of Greater Israel. So the incoherence, the bluffing, the hysteria, and the reverse-bluffing on Iran have their uses.
I want to reiterate, in case anyone doubts it, that of course I don't want Tehran to get a nuke. I'm open to even more stringent sanctions. I see the best strategy being of using our strengths – technology, alliances – to bring the Tehran regime down the way we did the Soviets. Not by bombing them. But by out-lasting them. Because our political system, like Israel's, is better for human beings. And history has proved it and will prove it again. I just believe a pre-emptive strike on the basis of alleged nuclear capacity would be catastrophic for world peace, for Israel's legitimacy and for the campaign against Jihadism. And it over-rates the Iran regime's power, competence and stability.
I worry about apocalyptic scenarios with religious figures. Goldblog recently mocked me for it. But in the years since, I really have come to believe, on further study and thought, that the rhetoric is often accompanied by strategic caution, and that those clinging to power the way these thugs have tend not to be suicidally inclined. And while many quotes are indeed inflammatory, I do not believe the desire to eliminate Israel is about nuking it. When the Supreme Leader of a theocracy formally announces such a thing would be a sin, then I think we have to take that rhetoric seriously as well.
The Dish 