Romney’s Coattails Are Short?

Silver checks in on the Senate:

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model now gives Republicans just about a 16 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. This is a precipitous drop from just two months ago. On Aug. 19, the forecast put their odds at close to 62 percent.

Blumenthal agrees that Democrats are likely to maintain control and looks at various races. On the Brown-Warren battle:

In Massachusetts, Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D) met in their third debate on Wednesday night, which was markedly less aggressive and more policy-focused than their last two encounters. The story seems to be the same, though: Brown is very popular in Massachusetts, but most Bay State voters do not want a Republican-controlled Senate. Consequently, Warren has tried to make the race about national issues, tying Brown to Mitt Romney and Senate Republicans, while Brown has focused more on local Massachusetts issues. Warren has led in five of six polls conducted since the first presidential debate and now leads by 2.2 points in the HuffPost Pollster estimate of the race, which includes all available polling, but the race is close enough that it could still go either way.