Yesterday I blegged, "Here's a Dishhead bleg: when was the last time that a sitting president in a re-election campaign lost six percentage points in the polls in two weeks in October?" A reader responds:
Well you only need to go two elections cycles back! In 2004, RealClearPolitics had Bush leading Kerry by 6 points before the debate (9/30/04). Thirteen days later (10/13/04), that lead had shrunk to 1.5 points – a drop of 4.5. In contrast, Obama went from a pre-debate (10/03/12) lead of 3.1 points to a 0.4 deficit thirteen days later – a drop of 3.5. I'm with you on Obama having had a lackluster debate performance, but can we stop pretending that Romney's rise is without precedent?
Another adds:
Not two weeks, but in 2004, RCP's poll of polls had Bush ahead by 7.6 points on September 9. On October 11, his lead was down to 0.8 points – a drop of 6.8.
Another points to a recent Weigel post that elaborated on the fact that "Reagan dropped 7 points to Mondale after their first debate."
I will now crawl back into my blog-cave and cower. But seriously, thanks. That poll of polls map above? Ohio.
The Dish 