Ezra Klein talked to Gallup's Frank Newport about his organization's presidential poll, which finds a much larger Romney lead than other national polls:
“The likely voters model takes into account changes in the response to questions about how closely they’re following and how enthusiastic they are,” [Newport] said. “It’s not just capturing underlying movement — it’s representing changes in enthusiasm.”
That sounds, I replied, like a model that would tend to overstate the effects of major events that favored one candidate or the other, as their supporters would grow temporarily more enthusiastic and attentive, while the other side would grow temporarily disillusioned. Newport agreed. “I wouldn’t use the word ‘overstate,’ ” he said. “But it would be very sensitive to changes in enthusiasm. The Denver debate clearly had an impact on Romney’s people. I think your insight is correct there. Whether we see a dulling of that over the next several days is what I want to see.”
The Dish 