Nate Cohn takes a close look at Ohio, perhaps the most important swing state:
Most Ohio polls show Obama beneath 49 percent, averaging about 47.8 percent of the vote. That gives Romney a more credible path to victory than he has in Wisconsin, Iowa, or Nevada, where the majority of polls show Obama at or above 49 percent. Obama has the advantage with 18 days to go, but there’s room for Romney to run the table and squeak out a narrow victory. If Ohio is supposed to be a firewall, it doesn't stretch high enough to preclude a Romney victory–at least not yet.
Meanwhile, Enten focuses on New Hampshire, which is very close:
You might say, "Who cares?" New Hampshire only has four electoral votes. Yet these votes look like they could be quite consequential. A few days ago I mapped out a scenario in which New Hampshire becomes a most important state.
Let's say Romney takes Wisconsin along with Colorado, Florida and Virginia, while Obama captures Iowa, Nevada and Ohio. Then New Hampshire decides who will be president.
The Dish 