Kornacki examines blue-state apathy:
[E]nthusiasm is highest for both parties in the battleground states – not surprising, given how much attention they receive – and lowest in their respective safe zones. But the drop-off is more severe for Democrats in blue states, where they’re almost ten points behind Republicans on turnout likelihood.
He thinks this "seems like a pretty good explanation for why Obama may lose the national horserace but still win the Electoral College." Sam Wang's recent prediction:
I estimate an approximately 25% chance that the popular vote and the electoral vote will go in opposite directions – a "Bush v. Gore scenario". I regard this as a serious risk, since it would engender prolonged bitterness.
(Chart of various Obama paths to victory via Buzzfeed)
The Dish 
