Josh McCrain imagines the consequences of killing the Electoral College:
What would a United States presidential election look like without the Electoral College? A useful case for examination is the first round of French presidential elections. In 2012, four candidates received over 10% of the vote – including extreme right wing Marie Le Pen of National Front – with current president François Hollande receiving only 28% of the vote. In France a second round, where the top two finishing candidates compete against each other, ensures that one wins with a majority. Research also suggests that voters are more likely to pick a candidate in the first round they would not vote for in the second, but it is not implausible to think of a similar, if slightly less fragmented, result in the United States – except in the US there would not be a second round. One can envision the Tea Party fielding a candidate that polls very well in the South, while Romney could remain a moderate of the center-right wing of the party, leading to the fragmentation of the Republican Party. None of this is particularly hard to imagine: in 1992 Ross Perot received 19% of the national vote and won no electoral votes.