Nate’s analysis of state polls is here; their direction and history suggest Obama has an edge in the Electoral College that would take a surge of Independent support for Romney to overcome. Blumenthal’s here. Money quote:
The overall standings produced by the aggregation of all of the public polls in the battleground states have been essentially unchanged for nearly three weeks. Although the margins have closed since the first debate and remain very close, Obama holds advantages of 2 percentage points or better in four states — Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin — that would combine with those favoring him by larger margins to give him 277 electoral votes, 7 more than needed for victory.
The Dish 