Matt Baume's final look at marriage equality ballot initiatives:
In Washington and Maryland, polls put us in the low fifties and our opponents in the mid-forties. And it’s very tight in Minnesota, where both sides have remained tied in the upper forties. In that state, the proposed anti-gay constitutional amendment needs 50 percent to win.
In the past, pre-election surveys have overstated public support for the freedom to marry. But a lot has changed since the last time there was widespread voting on marriage. In particular, we now have 16 surveys showing a majority of Americans support the freedom to marry. This vote will be crucial test of the change in public opinion.
Jacob Sullum checks in on legalization polling:
In Colorado a SurveyUSA poll conducted last week put support for Amendment 64, which would allow home cultivation as well as state-licensed sales, at 50 percent, with 44 percent opposed and 6 percent undecided. The Denver Post reports that the measure is "tied among voters who said they had already cast a ballot," while "its biggest lead was among people who said they would be voting on Election Day."
Harry Enten provides polling projections for various ballot initiatives. He expects both Colorado and Washington to legalize marijuana. He also expects Maine, Maryland and Washington to vote in favor of marriage equality. Minnesota could go either way.
The Dish 