The Polls Win Big

Silver_Map

Blumenthal gives the pollsters their due:

We believe the success of the poll tracking model that Jackman designedfor HuffPost Pollster – predicting the winner of all 50 states plus the District of Columbia – owes in part to aggregating the polls alone with relatively little additional data or processing (save for the use of past voting data to help combine national and state-level polls and statistical corrections to help reduce the distortions produced by consistent pollster "house effects").

Harry Enten evaluates individual pollsters:

[T]here are some pollsters who are going to have to go back to the drawing board after this election. Last week, I wrote about how Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen differed on the winner in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. Rasmussen eventually found a shift in New Hampshire towards the president and a tie in Ohio. In all five cases, it seems that Public Policy Polling (PPP) had the correct winner all along. They continue a fine record of polling, despite a Democratic affiliation.

This marks the second election cycle in a row, however, in which Rasmussen has shown a serious Republican bias. They also were right-leaning in their 2008 state polls. That's a far fall for a pollster who was so accurate in 2004 and 2006.

Meanwhile, it has been determined that Nate Silver is probably a witch. Map above from 538.