Month: November 2012

12.27 am. It’s been a long long slog these past five years of backing the skinny guy with the funny name. But this election, to my mind, is immensely more important than the breakthrough of 2008, after the catastrophe of Bush-Cheney. What it has done is rip open the complete epistemic closure on the Republican right about what America now is. It has revealed that Fox News, Drudge, and the rest have been engaged in a massive propaganda campaign to create an alternative reality and get the rest of us to go along.

But this president has never been a radical; he has always been a moderate; he has been immensely skilled at foreign policy, ended one war and won another, killed Osama bin Laden and saved the American auto industry, deflected a Second Great Depression and initated universal access to healthcare. He has presided over a civil rights revolution and the beginning of the end of prohibition of marijuana. He has created the new and durable coalition that was once Karl Rove’s dream.

Americans saw this. They were not fooled. And they made the right call, as they usually do. What was defeated tonight was not just Romney, a hollow cynic, but a whole mountain of mendacity and delusion. That sound you hear is the cognitive dissonance ringing in the ears of ideologues and cynics. Any true conservative longs for that sound, the sound of reality arriving to pierce through fantasy and fanaticism.

We are the ones we have been waiting for. And now we have entrenched it deeply in the history of America and the world. That matters. May the next four years make it matter even more.

12.24 am. Tweet of the morning:

Amen. The longer argument is here.

12.13 am. Marijuana is now legal in Washington and Colorado. I repeat: prohibition has ended in Washington and Colorado. This is an amazing night for two big reform efforts against the ignorance and bigotry of the past.

12.09 am. A word to Mr Rove, Mr Romney and Mr Ryan:

11.59 pm Some dramatic news on marriage equality. It looks clear now that Maryland and Maine will bring marriage equality into effect by popular vote – and the margin in Minnesota has narrowed to 4 points against. With 50 percent of the votes in in Washington, the margin is pro-equality 52 – 48. That’s an amazing shift.

11.56 pm. Rove seems to be walking back his insistence that Ohio should not be called. Michael Barone is offering therapy at this point.Rove is being completely exposed as a tool of the Romney campaign. I just can’t tear my eyes away from the meltdown.

11:45 pm. Tweet of the minute:

11:43 pm. Nate Cohn disagrees with Rove:

There are probably 250,000 votes left in Cuyahoga County alone, and they’ll split decidedly in Obama’s direction. There isn’t a plausible path to victory for Romney in Ohio, and even if he managed to win, it’s hard to see how he comes back in Colorado or wins Nevada.

11.35 pm. We await Karl Rove’s return.

11.34 pm. I’m getting ready to go on Colbert – as Rove battles Fox News’ polling unit. Its Rove versus the nerds in Fox. This is a total meltdown on live TV. Is this what happens when epistemic closure meets reality? Some nerd at the back of Fox News being assailed by Rove? If you’re not watching Fox, you should. It’s riveting.

11.27 pm. Rove is saying that Fox called Ohio too soon. It’s Rove vs CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX.

11.25 pm. All those people calling themselves moderates? They’re moderate Republicans and they voted for the moderate Republican running for the presidency: Barack Obama.

11.21 pm. Still silence from Dick Morris who, if his sense of shame had not been surgically removed, would resign from every gig he has, including Fox. George F Will and Michael Barone need to resign as well. It’s one thing to be wrong. It’s another thing to be so totally wrong, so utterly out of it, and yet remain as columnist and pundits with any smidgen of credibility. Accountability, please.

11.17 pm AMERICA FUCK YEAH!!!!! Absorbing the news.

11.14 pm. CNN predicts Obama wins Iowa and Fox News predicts Obama will win Ohio. Obama is re-elected.

11.11 pm. Sabato looks at the precincts in Virginia and thinks Obama will win the state.

11.06 pm. Florida’s Panhandle looks as if its vote is in, and Miami-Dade is still only 76 percent in. Call me crazy, but it looks to me as if Obama looks likely to win that state.

11.02 pm. The Denver Post calls Colorado for Obama:

If that holds, all Obama needs is Iowa and it’s over.

10.57 pm. North Carolina looks to go to Romney. I’d have expected that state to be called a lot earlier. In Colorado, Nate Cohn sees Obama as a favorite:

74 percent of the vote is tabulated in Larimer County and Obama leads by 5 points. This is a county where Romney had to do well to compensate for Obama’s resilience in the Denver suburbs. If Obama wins Colorado, and Nevada where he was favored heading into the evening, and Iowa, he would hold enough electoral votes to win the presidency.

10.54 pm. Maine now looks set to be the first state to vote by referendum to back marriage equality. With a third of the votes in, marriage equality is winning 53 – 47. In Maryland, it’s still insanely close.

10.47 pm. The man who predicted a massive Romney landslide hangs in:

10.41 pm. Not a great night for Sheldon Adelson:

10.38 pm. If the votes in Miami-Dade come in as expected (the panhandle has largely voted), it’s hard to see how Romney can win Florida at this point. And if he cannot win Florida, it’s over.

10.36 pm On Fox, Peggy Noonan is wondering what is going on out there. She calls the mood among Republicans “subdued.” Hmmm. Maybe she is not in touch with the real America. Maybe she just feels her way to being wrong and then not copping to it.

10:31: Nate Cohn examines the Iowa vote:

35 percent of the vote is counted in Polk County, Iowa, and Obama has a 21 point lead. Obama only won by 15 points in 2008, and it seems unlikely that Obama will win by anything near 15 points. But Kerry only won Polk County by 5 points and Obama’s large early lead bodes poorly for Romney’s chances.

10:28 pm Silver checks in on Ohio:

Ohio has been slow to count its vote, but President Obama has gotten reasonably strong results so far in south-central Ohio, often beating his 2008 margins there. In Ross County, Ohio, home to the town of Chillicothe, Mr. Obama trails Mitt Romney by only one percentage point with about 80 percent of the vote counted. Mr. Obama lost the county by eight percentage points to John McCain in 2008.

10.23 pm. You can watch the marijuana legalization results live here. You can just stare at it if you want. For hours, if you want.

10.21 pm. Agonizingly close marriage equality vote in Maryland:

10.18 pm. Better news for Obama in Virginia:

Unless something surprising happens in northern Virginia, Obama will probably carry the state. Romney didn’t make enough gains in rural Virginia and Obama is holding up quite well in the black belt counties of southeastern Virginia. With Obama holding up well in the Richmond suburbs, it’s tough to imagine how Romney would make huge inroads in northern Virginia.

10.10 pm. Some great exit polling on ending marijuana Prohibition in Colorado 57 – 43. Yay!

10.05 pm. The earlt results for marriage equality show it ahead in both Maine and Maryland. It’s very close in Maryland – a couple of points – but way ahead in Maine so far.

9.57 pm. In Ohio, Obama is edging Romney by four points with a third of the vote counted.

9.55 pm. Warren wins back Massachusetts and I know that because Fox News just said so. And Obama has now won New Hampshire.

9.51 pm. If Obama wins Florida – and it’s agonizingly close – it will be because of Latino support. Silver:

[E]arly returns show Mr. Obama to win Hispanic-Americans over all by 20 percentage points in Florida, and if he wins that, it’d be larger than the 15-point margin he had in 2008. If Mr. Obama ekes out a win in Florida, this will have a lot to do with it.

9.50 pm. Tweetenfreude:

9.48 pm. Did Obamacare actually help the president? Ezra:

For 59 percent of all voters, the economy was the top issue, with both Romney and Obama voters citing the issue as important. But Obama voters were far more likely to cite health care as an important issue — 74 percent, as compared to 25 percent of Romney voters. Obama supporters were also overwhelmingly in favor of expanding Obamacare further. Far more Republicans, by contrast, called the budget deficit a top issue — 66 percent compared to 32 percent of Democrats.

9.39 pm. First open lesbian in the Senate!

9.35 pm. The GOP loses a safe Indiana Senate seat by picking the loony-right Richard Mourdock. Encouraging.

9.34 pm. Some signs of hope for Romney in Virginia:

Fauquier County, an exurban and rural county south of Washington, is 100 percent reporting and Romney won by 20 points, up from McCain’s 14 point victory in 2008. If Romney can make 6 point gains elsewhere in northern Virginia, he’ll be in a good spot.

9.30 pm. That NBC call for Warren winning was premature and now retracted. Still too close to call. But we now know that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have both lost their home states.

9.29 pm. The question at hand:

Here’s hoping.

9.27 pm. Wisconsin goes big for Obama, which means an even narrower path for Romney.

9.25 pm. Colorado exits:

The Latino turnout in Colorado was about 11 percent, breaking 74 percent for Obama and 25 percent for Romney in preliminary exit results. At 38 percent, independents made up the majority of the state’s electorate and split 50 to 43 for Romney. Democrats were 32 percent of the electorate, while Republicans were 30 percent.

9.20 pm. I agree with Ambers. It looks to me as if Virginia will eventually go to Romney and Florida to Obama. But both will be close. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania have narrowed Romney’s path to 270 for a very rocky one.

9.16 pm. Fox calls Pennsylvania for Obama. So, yeah, all that Romney late-campaign fuss was bullshit. NBC says Warren has won in Massachusetts. Florida is nuts.

9.13 pm. It gets better:

But it’s now back to a total tie.

9.09 pm. Women really are driving the Obama edge in the exit polls. In Pennsylvania, they are going for Obama by 55 – 43, and men going for Romney by 51 – 47.  Women are also 52 percent of the exit poll voters. Obama has an edge among women and women are out-voting men. That’s what it looks like from the exits. They are not results, however, I hasten to add. But there’s a reason the Fox crowd is looking grumpy. I love watching Tucker Carlson talk about abortion by the way. Who could drag their eyes away?

9 pm. Michigan goes to Obama. In Florida, it is like 2000. With more than half the precincts reporting it’s 49.6 percent for Obama and 49.6 for Romney. North Carolina is also very close, which strikes me as discouraging for Romney. I thought Romney would win North Carolina easily.

8.56 pm. Nate Cohn is getting excited:

According to CNN, 100 percent of Virginia’s Prince Edward County (rural and African American in the eastern part of the state) is reporting and Obama won 56-43. That actually represents an improvement over Obama’s 54-45 victory in 2008. Not a good sign for Romney.

Consistent with a big black turnout. Also:

Obama matches his ’08 performance in Lunenburg, VA, another rural county with a large black population in southeastern Virginia where 100 percent of precincts are counted. Once again, it looks like the burden is on Romney to make larger gains northern Virginia than he is in the southeastern part of the state. But in perhaps an ominous sign for Romney’s odds in northern Virginia, Romney isn’t yet outperforming McCain in the Richmond suburbs. Obama is outperforming his ’08 performance in Chesterfield County with 95 percent of precincts reporting.

And in Ohio:

We’re getting our first election day returns from Ohio, and Obama’s doing better than he did in 2008 in Erie County, where Obama leads 57-41 with 37 percent of precincts reporting. Still plenty of votes left to be counted.

8.54 pm. Tweet of the night:

8.51 pm. Will Wilkinson checks in on the mood on Twitter:

On my rather ecumenical Twitter feed, the liberals seem nearly ready to hoist Nate Silver onto their shoulders and dump the Gatorade. Conservatives either grumbling or scrabbling for signs of hope.

8.48 pm. Micah Cohen differs with Karl Rove on the Virginia vote so far:

Just more than three-quarters of the vote has been reported in Chesterfield County, Va., an important suburban and exurban region southwest of Richmond. In the tally so far, Mitt Romney leads President Obama 54 percent to 45 percent. If those percentages hold, Mr. Romney’s performance there would match almost exactly Senator John McCain’s margin of victory in Chesterfield County in 2008: 53 percent to 46 percent. Former President George W. Bush, however, when he carried the state in 2004, won Chesterfield County with 63 percent of the vote.

8.46 pm. Here’s the religious breakdown in Florida in the exit polls:

8.41 pm. I’m watching Fox and they seem very glum, apart from Rove who is seeing signs of better GOP turnout in Virginia counties. It’s funny to watch an entire narrative wobble: earlier they were expressing amazement that the Benghazi story did not give us a Romney landslide. But it’s still close in the critical states. I remember 2004 when I watched Bill Kristol start out grim-faced and ending up the night grinning like a smiley face.

8.36 pm. Ohio’s exit polls favor Obama so far. The reason? Weigel:

In 2008, Obama won 46 percent of Ohio whites. He’s now winning 42 percent. That’s right at the bottom of what he should be able to get to eke something out. But this poll has the black vote surging as a proportion of turnout, from 11% to 15%. If one of these numbers skews back toward Romney — like, the black vote falls to 12% — we’re at a tie. But if it doesn’t, Obama has buillt a new coalition that wins him the state, and Pennsylvania.

So far, what’s striking to me is the black turnout, which is looking much bigger than I expected. The Republican hacks told us that we were missing a white wave among Republican enthusiasts. They may have been missing the determination of African-Americans to prevent the first black president being defeated for re-election.

8.35 pm. First tweet of the night:

8.22 pm. The exit poll for Florida shows an Obama gender gap of 52 – 47 in favor of women and Romney with a similar but slightly smaller lead among men 53 – 46. The thing is: women made up 55 percent of the voters. A reminder that these are exit polls, not results. They can and will change.

8.19 pm. Huge turnout in Virginia. Bigger than 2008.

8.16 pm. Not the party i.d. that Rasmussen insisted upon:

In Ohio, 38 percent of voters identified as Democratic in the exit poll as compared with 31 percent of Republicans. And in Virginia, Democrats had a 37-to-33 advantage in party identification. These numbers are similar to what many pre-election polls showed.

But the indies could end up behind Romney.

8.15 pm. Florida is extremely close – again, not a great sign for Romney:

In a sign of a tight race in Florida, 42 percent of precincts have been counted in Pasco County, 89 percent of Lake County, and 48 percent of Clay County are reporting and Romney is only running a couple of points ahead of McCain. Given that Obama won by 3 points and might be able to hold a larger share of his margin in more diverse areas, this is a clear sign of a tight race. Romney could overcome with big gains in the Panhandle, but these returns are an early sign of a dead-heat.

8.13 pm. The demographics are looking good for Obama, much more like 2008 than 2010.  Look at Florida:

CNN is reporting on air that in the swing state of Florida, preliminary exit polls show that white voters make up 67 percent of the electorate in the Sunshine State, down from 71 percent in 2008, and Latino voters make up 16 percent, up from 14 percent in 2008.

8.10 pm. Fox is all over Sandy as the culprit, although O’Reilly blamed the “takers” and minorities.

8.08 pm. Virginia’s is tighter than I expected. I had given it to Romney in my head. But the emerging data is not promising:

Mitt Romney leads among men 53 percent to 45 percent in the early CBS News exit poll, while President Obama leads among women 53 percent to 46 percent. Women are 53 percent of the electorate in this early exit poll, while men are 47 percent of the electorate. There is a large racial divide among voters. White voters – who are 70 percent of the electorate – are breaking 64 percent to 35 percent for Romney. That includes white women, who support Romney 61 percent to 39 percent. Black voters, who make up 20 percent of the electorate, overwhelmingly favor Mr. Obama: 94 percent to six percent.

8.05 pm. The Ohio exits give Obama a 51-48. O’Reilly is talking up Hurricane Sandy. Not good signs for Romney. Now O’Reilly’s blaming Christie.

8.04 pm. So far, the exit polls look promising for the president. CNN’s exit polls make Virginia and North Carolina dead heats.

8 pm. Green Room Colbert Report live-blogging starts now, as they say on Fox.

Adam Pasick rounded up 36 pundit predictions and Rebecca Greenfield collected more than 70 predictions. The biggest outliers hail from the business arena: Jim Cramer calls it for Obama, projecting 440 electoral votes, while Larry Kudlow expects 330 for Romney. As for more strictly political commentators, Drew Lizner leads the Obama bulls with a prediction of 332 electoral votes. And, fittingly, Dick Morris narrowly edges out Michael Barone’s estimate, giving Romney a 325-vote victory. Below is a sampling of predictions from around the blogosphere. Here’s Sam Wang:

Barack Obama 303 EV, Mitt Romney 235 EV.

Harry Enten:

I’ll go with Obama 303 to Romney 235 in the electoral college as my prediction. … It also seems unlikely that there will be an electoral/popular vote split. The average of all the aggregates pegs Obama with a 1.6 point popular vote victory, which is what I’ll make my final call.

Ezra Klein:

President Obama will win with 290 electoral votes. I’m not extremely confident in the precision of that estimate: Some swing states are close enough that it’s entirely possible for a good ground game to tip, say, Florida into Obama’s column, or Colorado into Romney’s. Virginia is basically tied, and I’m giving it to Romney based on the assumption that challenger wins in a tie, but it could easily go the other way. So if Obama ends up winning with 303, I won’t be surprised.

John Cassidy:

Obama 303, Romney 235. If this were the actual outcome, it would mean that the 2012 election was not as close as the 2004 election, when a Presidential incumbent (George W. Bush) got 286 votes in the electoral college, and his challenger (John Kerry) got 251 votes. But it would be considerably closer than the 1996 election, when the incumbent (Bill Clinton) got 379 votes, and the challenger (Bob Dole) got just 159. Of course, it is just a prediction.

Larry Sabato:

Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes.

Tim Carney:

Total: Obama 290, Romney 248. Here’s my caveat: When I predicted elections for Novak, I did everything on a discrete, local level. That’s why I was very right in 2002 and 2004. It’s part of why I was wrong in 2008. Some years, there is a big national tide that can overwhelm some of the local dynamics. … The 292-246 Obama victory is most likely, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all by anything up to 331 for Obama, or up to 269 (a tie) for Romney.

Tomasky:

Obama 294, Romney 244. No Floridas, no hanging chads, no Supreme Courts. A lot of states will be close, but I think it will be clear enough. Popular vote will be Obama by maybe 1.8 percent, something a shade under 2 percent.

Douthat:

So my final, less-than-courageous prediction is that the swing states will, indeed, all be closer than the current averages suggest, and that Obama will only win those states where he’s leading by more than 2 points in the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, and that there will be one surprise where even a bigger lead isn’t safe … but the surprise will be Iowa rather than Wisconsin or Ohio or and Pennsylvania, and Obama will carry the electoral college by 271 to 267. And for the sake of the republic and all our sanity, I’ll give him a popular vote edge as well: Call it 49.7 to 49.2, the same half-percent margin that Gore enjoyed over Bush in 2000.

James Antle III:

Obama wins, 271 – 267 …  Even if you believe, as I do, that many battleground state pollsters are being overly generous in their Democratic turnout assumptions, it just feels like hoping for too much for that to tip the balance in Romney’s favor in every single swing state where he now trails. This is especially true in the states where Barack Obama isn’t that far below 50 percent.

James Pethokoukis:

Based on both polls and reporting, my best guess is that Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States, winning the two-party popular vote 51% to 49% and the electoral vote by 301 to 237 for President Obama.

Rich Lowry:

I said on Sunday I “kinda” think Romney will win. When I repeated that last night on Hugh Hewitt, Hugh laughed at me with the assurance of someone serenely confident in the coming Romney landslide. I told him nothing would please me more than to see him completely vindicated. But it feels like a 49-49 proposition to me. 

Sean Trende:

I think that the popular vote will be close, and that Romney will win North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Colorado, bringing him just shy of what he needs to win. But I think that Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa and Ohio will be very close, probably around a point each. It wouldn’t take a particularly large error in the national polls for Romney to win these states, however. And all it would take for this thing to turn into a healthy Obama win would be for little Marist polling to outshine Gallup. 

Jonah Goldberg:

I think Romney wins in an absolute nail biter.

A reader absorbs “the more interesting flights of fancy” from NRO’s collective crystal ball:

Brian Brown, president of the National Organization for Marriage: Romney wins with >300 electoral votes, carrying Minnesota. Bonus prediction: marriage equality fails in Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington (all four states in which it’s on the ballot).

Columnist S.E. Cupp: Romney wins by 2 electoral votes, 270 to 268. The winning margin is provided by Wisconsin. But it’s OK because Obama actually wants to lose, kind of.

Charles A. Donovan of the Charlotte Lozier Institute (?): Romney wins presidential race by winning Ohio. And Republicans gain seats in the House.

David French, founder of Evangelicals for Mitt: The House elects Mitt in an Electoral College tie, and Biden wins the VP in the Senate.

Radio host Hugh Hewitt: Mitt wins in a landslide, carrying Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. VP Ryan decides Senate votes in 50-50 split Senate. (I think Hugh just had an orgasm.)

Christian Schneider, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Romney with 291 EV. Wins in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia (but not, interestingly, Wisconsin).

Ben Shapiro, author and radio host (who?): Romney gets 311 in the Electoral College. He wins in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. It’s only close because of those danged medias.

Earlier reader stories here and here. More at our Facebook page. Another reader:

In Nyack, New York, my polling place was two polling places condensed to one, but that all worked out ok. However, someone from storm-ravaged Long Island showed up to vote and the poll worker was about to turn him away when a few of us started telling her loudly that, by order of the Governor, those from affected storm areas can vote provisionally for president and senator in whatever polling station they could get to. The worker called the county HQ, and got it resolved! Be vigilant, everyone, help make sure the poll workers know the rules, and ensure everyone gets to exercise their rights!

Another:

I have been reading stories (on Twitter, the blogosphere, and most important from my own family and friends in OH and FL) about ridiculously long lines, malfunctioning machines, and voter suppression efforts. I realize how fortunate I am to live in Washington, a state that is completely "vote by mail". I am also left wondering why we don't have a national voting law that makes it as easy as possible to cast a vote. Why not just let everyone vote by mail?  Why does this have to be a partisan issue as well?

Another vote-by-mail ballot is seen above, from a budding Obama supporter in Portland, Oregon. Another reader, in Brockton, Massachusetts, writes:

A 6-year-old girl asked the police officer why they were shredding her mother's ballot as her mother fed the ballot into the counting machine, causing the entire polling station to break out laughing!

Another:

My eight-year-old son and I went to the poll in L.A. right when it opened at 7:00 am.  The line was around the block, but it moved quickly – we were in and out in half an hour. While we waited in line, I explained to my son all the ballot propositions – there are eleven state and three county propositions.  We glossed right over the county proposition requiring porn stars to wear condos.  Not ready to explain that one to my son at 7:00 in the morning. 

Another:

I went to vote in Shaw in D.C. today around 7:00 a.m. A friend who staffs a Republican Congressman who you and I don't particularly care for was waiting behind me in line. We shared a good laugh at waking up before the crack of dawn and waiting outside for an hour to cancel each other's votes, before going to work to achieve opposing political goals (I work for an Executive branch political appointee). It was a nice reminder that in spite of all the pettiness in the election, faith in the most basic American institution brings us together at least once every year.

Another:

I voted early in Illinois so that I'd be available to drive people to the polls. In my area of Illinois there is no mass transportation, so options are limited for drivers without vehicles. Just before noon, I got a call from a lady who spoke in broken English asking for a ride. As I was driving to the address she'd given me, I wondered if I was being pranked. Turns out that Christina had just become an American citizen on May 18 and this was her first time voting. How cool is that?

Another:

I became an American citizen after the last presidential election, so this was my first one.  I was so excited to the point that my husband (also a naturalized citizen) made fun of me.  I took my 5-year-old son with me to vote, who had learned just yesterday all about voting in school.  While we waited in line – my son being miraculously patient and not too fidgety – he looked up at me and in one of those moments that make you just worship being a parent, said "Mamma, do you have a President in Canada?"  A bunch of people in line chuckled a bit and then we all got into a discussion about the differences between a President and a Prime Minister for the benefit of my future voter.  It was a great morning.

Another:

This is the first time in twelve years that my husband and I went to our polling place together. He just retired from the military, so he has either been deployed or we have voted by absentee ballot. Twelve years ago we were in Texas and voted for President Bush (I regret that vote to this day). Now, three deployments and three elections later we are voting for President Obama … in a battleground state.

Another, in Colorado:

Twice over the past two months a canvasser has come to my house and asked if I would be voting for Obama. Both times I said yes. Last night, there was a knock on my door. It was another Obama volunteer (the GOP isn’t the only one with volunteer staffed GOTV efforts), who was sent to the house because my mail-in ballot had not been received yet. The ballot was filled out and sitting in my car. The volunteer told me to make sure that I did not try to mail it at this point, and gave a list of nearby locales where I could drop it off. I did so this morning at the local polling place, where there was no line (probably because Colorado has such an easy vote-by-mail system) and got my "I Voted" sticker in 30 seconds. I came away impressed at our state’s voting procedures and Obama’s organization. Peggy Noonan is not the only one who feels vibrations; I think Barack wins Colorado. 

Another:

I wanted to share my story of voting in Chicago this morning. I live in the Northside, an extremely Democratic precinct and city. We are often told that our vote doesn't count because of geography and demographics, though many in the community still consider it their civic duty to vote. As I was standing in line this morning waiting to cast my ballot, I noticed an older woman with an affected gait go back and forth from the voting table to ask the clerks for a new ballot. She had Parkinson's Disease and was having difficulty marking the ballot correctly. I was standing behind her waiting to turn my ballot in as the machine rejected her third attempt to submit her vote. She very patiently and determinedly said she would fill out the ballot again, her third time, because her shaking should not prevent her from casting a valid vote. I couldn't stay long enough to see if she was successful, but I'm confident she would have filled out ballots all day until she was successful in submitting one – she was that determined.

I left thinking about how privileged we are to live in a country where even if votes don't "matter," the will of the voter does. And the incident also reminded me of the incredible stakes in this election. That a woman with a pre-existing condition can fight so hard to cast her ballot and potentially preserve the significant achievement of Obamacare was incredibly moving. I don't know whether the woman I saw was voting for Obama or not, but I was heartened that someone with much to gain or lose was fighting to make her vote count.

Thanks for the great coverage. I will be following your live-blog this evening!

Sophie Quinton bets tonight's winner won't have a mandate:

Long-shot scenarios aside, here’s what we’re more likely to see: The man who wins the White House on Nov. 6 is expected to do so by a narrow margin. Democrats are expected to hold the Senate, and Republicans are expected to hold the House. That’s not a change election; that’s an election that locks in existing dynamics.

Yglesias, on the other hand, argues that a "mandate is not a real thing, so there's nothing a candidate can do—up to and including a Democrat carrying North Carolina and Indiana—to win one":

Probably the best way to think of a mandate is as a historical artifact of the poorly sorted congressional politics of yore. Politicians in that framework were cross-pressured between partisan and ideological loyalties. A president with a "mandate"—think Ronald Reagan in 1981 or Lyndon Johnson in 1965—could unify the ideological factions within his own party while fracturing the other side's coalition. Modern politics just doesn't work like that.

If Obama wins, Ruy Teixeira will credit the Hispanic vote:

[T]here will be 23.7 million eligible Hispanic voters this year, an increase of 22 percent over 2008. This has brought the Hispanic share of all eligible voters up to 11 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than 2008. Recent data also indicates that Hispanic voter enthusiasm, after flagging early in the campaign, is now, if anything, higher than in 2008. This data suggests that the Latino share of voters in 2012 should go up relative to 2008, helping drive up the overall share of minority voters in the process.

(Photo sent by a Dish reader today)

From Nate Cohn's election-watching guide:

As most of the big eastern battleground states close at 7 and 7:30 p.m., be prepared for Obama to take an early lead in Ohio, Florida, and even North Carolina, where early votes will probably represent a disproportionate share of initial returns. As Election Day ballots are tabulated, Romney will begin to make inroads and perhaps ultimately overcome Obama's advantage in early votes. Conversely, expect Romney to open up a big early lead in Virginia, where rural, Republican counties in western Virginia report quickly. Even if Obama ultimately wins Virginia by a modest margin, Romney will likely lead the state for most of the night. Obama won Virginia by 6 points in 2008, but it wasn’t called until more than 90 percent of precincts were reported because Democratic-leaning counties take so much longer to report. In 2008, Obama won the final 600,000 votes by a 170,000 vote margin.

If you want to know what it's been like for a swing-state resident recently, watch this – if you can bear it:

Specifically, the video is a "compressed recording of [last] Thursday's noon news broadcast on the Columbus, Ohio, CBS affiliate," via Jed Lewison:

If you didn't have the patience to watch the entire clip, I don't blame you. Here's what you missed:

* Just over 10 minutes worth of political ads packed into a half-hour newscast
* 22 consecutive political ads (including 1 voter ID PSA) 5 ads attacking Obama (all from outside groups)
* 2 ads supporting Romney (one from Romney campaign, one from Crossroads)
* 2 ads attacking Romney (one from OFA, one from Priorities)
* 4 ads attacking Sherrod Brown (all outside groups)
* 1 ad supporting Sherrod Brown (from his campaign)
* The rest of the ads were for local ballot issues or candidates

Keep in mind that local news is the absolute worst as far as being wall-to-wall political advertising is concerned. On Friday, I saw 45 consecutive political ads during the evening broadcast with a similar mix to the one posted here. With such saturation, I can't imagine that any of the ads on local news will have any impact, at least not for the high profile races. There's just no way to process the ads without having your eyes glaze over.

Meanwhile, Haberman passes along some last-minute gloating from Team Romney:

The Mitt Romney campaign held its final pre-election phone call with Washington insiders, "elites" and others this morning, telling those on the phone that they outspent President Obama's team on the TV airwaves the final week of the campaign and that their polling shows them slightly ahead in Ohio, sources familiar with the conversation said. Officials on the call said the Romney campaign had spent $103 million on ads, compared with $53 million by the Obama team, the sources said. They also said to their surrogates they were slightly ahead heading into Ohio in their final internal polls.

Charlie Warzel notes a late uptick in the digital ad war, including a very late surge for Romney:

By October, both candidates ramped up their digital display output, with Obama landing in the fourth spot on Moat's ranker, while Romney eeked into Most's list as the 100th most active advertiser (again, based on volume, not display). The very early November data shows both candidates continuing to dial up their Web presences, as Obama ascended to the No. 2 spot, while Romney climbed to No. 5.

Of course, it's unclear just how important digital display advertising will prove to be in this campaign. These figures are, however, some indicator of the campaigns' faith in the Internet as a persuasion medium. As it has been throughout the general election cycle, the Obama campaign seems to have invested early and often in online advertising whereas the Romney campaign has been more reticent, opting for higher engagement video ads and investing heavily in TV spend.

Romney's concluding web video:

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign releases this cut of the president's final campaign event (ever) in Iowa last night:

Watch here for the segment of the speech where an emotional Obama tells the "Fired Up! Ready To Go!" story one last time. Lastly, Buzzfeed got a hold of some never-approved political ads crafted by a Democratic marketing firm, among them this gruesome Bain attack:

Ad War archive here.

Chris Kirk maps voter clout by state:

The average electoral vote represents 436,000 people, but that number rises and falls per state depending on that state’s population over 18 years of age…. The states with the fewest people per electoral vote, and therefore the highest “vote power,” are Wyoming, Vermont, and North Dakota.

In Wyoming, there are 143,000 people for each of its three electoral votes. The states with the weakest votes are New York, Florida, and California. These states each have around 500,000 people for each electoral vote. In other words, one Wyoming voter has roughly the same vote power as four New York voters.

In many places, it's illegal to photograph your ballot. Joyner asks why. McArdle answers:

Votes used to be widely available in America for outrageously small sums of money, or free whiskey. But that was back in the 19th century, before secret ballot measures were adopted. Now the buyer of votes has a grave difficulty: people might take your money, and then pull the lever for the other guy. Enter the camera. As inexpensive snapshot cameras became available, the vote-buyers were potentially back in business; just demand that the voter mark his ballot in indelible ink and then take a picture.

(Photo sent today by a Dish reader in Seattle)

Columbus, Ohio, 2.25 pm