Month: November 2012

“Waiting For A Feeling”

Nathaniel Rich headed to Virginia last week to knock on doors:

Canvassing is expected to make the difference. I saw this first hand these past few days, with a frequency that surprised me. I knocked on about ninety doors a day; about twenty-five would open, and behind about four or five of these I encountered that rarest, most valuable of species, the unicorn of the American electorate: an undecided voter.

These were not the undecided voters apotheosized by cable pundits—the wise moderates who struggled between conflicting impulses.

These people were, for the most part, blindingly ignorant of the candidates’ positions and even the central issues under debate. They had absorbed next to nothing from the hundreds of hours of advertisements, political speeches, and pounds of campaign mail to which they’d been subjected. Many appeared to view their ambivalence as a point of pride. "I won’t know until I’m in the voting booth" was a common sentiment. "I’m waiting for a feeling," another said, as if anticipating a visitation from the beyond. This quasi-religious tone was reflected in the statements of many of these voters, including one older woman who said, in response to a question about her political views, "That’s between me and my polls."

By the way, a glimpse at Google searches for people typing in "who is running for president?":

Screen shot 2012-11-06 at 1.14.49 PM

(Video: The full, unembeddable version of Maher's monologue is here.)

Holding Pundits Accountable

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I haven't been dumb enough to offer a prediction this election season, although I long ago said that the economic fundamentals favor Romney, even after the most cynical, hollow campaign I have witnessed since Atwater's destruction of Dukakis. And every hack deserves a break in an election this close. But a few individuals have stood out for the sheer chutzpah of their certainty. If they were managing someone's money and were off by the amount they may be, they would be fired. And this does not count for those simply inferring results from all the polls, state and national. They're not predicting as such, based on their brilliant intuition. They're adding numbers up. If all the numbers are wrong, as so many among the GOP believe, then the pollsters will require a reckoning, not those simply taking them at face value.

But there are a handful whose predictions have been so out there, so beyond polling expectations, they either will deserve rapturous applause or, in my opinion, oblivion, if they are proven wrong. Dick Morris's clear prediction of a Romney 325 Electoral Vote landslide is the most obvious:

It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history. It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit.

If Obama wins, will Morris be fired by Fox? Markos Moulitsas predicts a similar 332 – 206 landslide for Obama:

Currently, national polling assumes a big drop-off from registered voters to likely voters. I don’t believe that’ll be the case, and we’re certainly not seeing it in the early vote—Democratic turnout is up. And the RV models have been more accurate historically.

Morris's theory is that the media have cooked all the polls, while Moulitsas is focusing on turnout. Morris's conspiracy theory deserves more opprobrium if he is proven wrong, it seems to me. He should be laughed out of the business. But Morris has never really pretended to be a serious analyst.

That's not the case for George Will or Michael Barone, predicting a 321 and 315 Romney electoral college landslide respectively. My own view is that it's too tight in the swing states to know with certainty what the result will be. But I doubt a landslide for either.

Dishheads are invited to go out and find more pundit predictions – on right and left – and help us hold every single one of the landslide-predicters accountable.

(Photo: Dick Morris, former senior advisor to President Clinton, signs copies of his book 'Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race' October 13, 2005 in Chicago, Illinois. By Scott Harrison/Getty Images. He got that right too, didn't he?)

When Voting Machines Attack

Maria Bustillos checks in with voting expert Joseph Lorenzo Hall to discuss how worried we should be about problems with electronic voting machines. He says if something goes wrong it's probably not someone trying to steal your vote:

What I think we expect to see a lot of—and it's not as sexy as conspiracy theory—is the aging of this machinery, as much of it is 10- to 15-year-old computer equipment. Another not-so-sexy source of problems will be from newer online voter registration systems, an electronic version of pollbooks. We may see strange reports of people not being registered or being marked down as already voted. Much of that will seem to some like fraud, but it is more likely poorly checked voter registration rolls. People don't like having to cast provisional ballots, but they need to understand that if you're registered and at the right location, the ballot will count.

His advice:

The number-one recommendation I can make is make sure voters "check their work"; that is, if you're voting on a voting machine, it will usually summarize your selections on a final screen before you cast your vote (and if there is a paper trail—a printer on the side, be sure to carefully make sure it prints your choices correctly). Make sure this ballot summary reflects how you want to vote because this is the most likely step where voters would make a mistake or an attacker would try and take advantage of an inattentive voter and show something different on the screen versus the paper. If you have a problem, tell the poll workers and then call us at (non-partisan) Election Protection at 866-OUR-VOTE.

Max Read speaks with Hall about the above video, which was shot in Pennsylvania today and has already shot across social media sphere. Hall isn't worried:

[T]hat's an obviously miscalibrated iVotronic (ES&S) voting machine… we would recommend that poll workers would recalibrate the machine and everything would be fine.

Endorsing Divided Government

Both David Frum and Justin Green endorsed Romney, in part, because they expect a Democratic Senate to keep him in check. Ezra Klein rejects this sort of reasoning:

Democrats might lose the Senate [today]. If they don’t, they might lose it in 2014. Or 2016, when President Romney is reelected atop a booming economy, and right before the unexpected retirement of one of the liberal members of the Supreme Court. What happens then? Are the endorsements void? It’s a strange kind of endorsement that only works as long as the presidential candidate being endorsed isn’t able to govern alongside members of his own party. More to the point, it’s a self-nullifying kind of endorsement.

Obama For President

For a variety of reasons, I haven't written a formal endorsement of Obama this year. Partly it's been a crazy few weeks – moving, sickness, blackout – but also because I feel I made my case in two essays this year – defending Obama's record in January as far better than the current consensus, and forseeing last month a real possibility of profound and necessary change in America over the next four years. From my January piece:

Sure, Obama cannot regain the extraordinary promise of 2008. We’ve already elected the nation’s first black president and replaced a tongue-tied dauphin with a man of peerless eloquence. And he has certainly failed to end Washington’s brutal ideological polarization, as he pledged to do. But most Americans in polls rightly see 155114479him as less culpable for this impasse than the GOP. Obama has steadfastly refrained from waging the culture war, while the right has accused him of a "war against religion." He has offered to cut entitlements (and has already cut Medicare), while the Republicans have refused to raise a single dollar of net revenue from anyone. Even the most austerity-driven government in Europe, the British Tories, are to the left of that.

And it is this Republican intransigence—from the 2009 declaration by Rush Limbaugh that he wants Obama “to fail” to the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s admission that his primary objective is denying Obama a second term—that has been truly responsible for the deadlock. And the only way out of that deadlock is an electoral rout of the GOP, since the language of victory and defeat seems to be the only thing it understands.

If I sound biased, that’s because I am. Biased toward the actual record, not the spin; biased toward a president who has conducted himself with grace and calm under incredible pressure, who has had to manage crises not seen since the Second World War and the Depression, and who as yet has not had a single significant scandal to his name.

"To see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle," George Orwell once wrote. What I see in front of my nose is a president whose character, record, and promise remain as grotesquely under-appreciated now as they were absurdly hyped in 2008. And I feel confident that sooner rather than later, the American people will come to see his first term from the same calm, sane perspective.

And decide to finish what they started.

(Photo: U.S. President Barack Obama addresses a campaign rally on the campus of the College of Southern Nevada on November 1, 2012. By Chip Somodevilla/Getty.)

Beware The Exit Polls

Blumenthal warns:

[T]he initial results of the exit poll interviews have had frequent problems with non-response bias, a consistent discrepancy favoring the Democrats that has appeared to some degree in every presidential election since 1988. Usually the bias is small, but in 2004 it was just big enough to convince millions of Americans who saw the leaked results on the Internet that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush. It didn't work out that way.

The resulting uproar led the networks, beginning in 2006, to hold back the data from their news media clients in a sealed quarantine room on Election Day until 5 p.m. Eastern time. The quarantine means that any numbers purporting to be "exit polls" before 5 p.m. are almost certainly bogus.

Sarah Kliff's advice on exit polls:

Keep an eye on the demographics. [Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling] and [David Flaherty, CEO of the right-leaning Magellan Strategies] both say this is going to be one of the crucial things they’ll watch [tonight]. 

“Here in Colorado, for example, Latinos were 13 percent of the vote in 2008,” says Flaherty. “If it comes back at 5 pm, that they’re 18 or 20 percent of the vote, that would be a key observation. Then the folks in Chicago are going to be extremely pleased. If we see it at 9 percent, it might cause the Romney folks to start thinking that group isn’t as enthusiastic.”

Here’s Jensen’s take: “What I’m going to be looking out for are the demographics of who voted along racial and age lines. We Democratic pollsters think that the African American and younger voters will have as high turnout as they did in 2008. Republican pollsters are projecting enthusiasm won’t be there.” 

The View From Your Window Contest: Winner #127

Vfyw_11-3

A reader writes:

Bars, hills, green leaves: South America.

Another is more specific:

I think this picture was taken in Mexico City, or some other high altitude city in Latin America. First, the big mountain in the background that seems to have densely developed structures on it (this excludes most North American cities). Second, the trees still have green leaves on them in early November (this excludes most cities in the Northen US and Canada). Third, the metals bars on the windows and the steel security fence in the foreground (this excludes most North American cities). The dense smog also makes me think this is Mexico City.

Another:

This looks a lot like Quito, Ecuador, where you can see the mountains from everywhere.  I'm sure several readers are going to nail the exact street, but I've got to go knock on doors for Obama here in Michigan instead!

Another:

Mt Etna, Europe's most active volcano, is in the background. The only major airport in that whole area of Sicily is near Etna and when the volcano gets too active it smokes up the sky and closes the airport and you're stuck.

Another:

My 9-year-old daughter and I picked Florence, Italy.  It was the second place that popped into her mind. Chicago was the first, but I told her that we don't have a lot of mountains around here, so she picked Florence second. By the way, she also thinks that Romney is going to lose.  You heard it here first.

Another:

Tough one this week! Except for the fortunate few who were born in the shade of that mountain in the distance and recognize it on sight. Of course, I'm not one of those people. The cranes suggest a growing economy, though, and the apartment buildings remind me of Taiwan, so I'm going to guess this is somewhere in the Beitou neighborhood of Taipei. This is admittedly a shot in the dark, so here's hoping it's right.

Another:

If I am right it would be the most bizarre thing in my life.

Last week we were in Istanbul with my wife (unlike me, not a Dishhead); when I saw the previous VFYW, it looked exactly like the view from our hotel. I thought of entering the contest, but decided "Naah"… It turned out that it was indeed from a hotel next to our hotel on Marmara. Got so excited that I tweeted about it and shared with my wife, explaining to her the VFYW contests.

Here's where it gets interesting: we're back to our apartment in Sofia and wife says, why don't you send the view from our own window, with Vitosha in the background. So, I am thinking about it, and then – boom!  I see this new entry today, that looks exactly like a Sofia landscape with Vitosha in the background. In fact, it looks like a view from Ivan Vazov, which is the closest neighborhood to ours, Lozenets. So if I'm correct, then that is the most bizarre series of coincidences that have ever happened to me. If I am wrong, then it is a perfect illustration of the biases that our brains play on us.

Biases this time around. Another reader gets close:

The ziggurat-like building in the background immediately reminded me of Mosul, which has Saddam-era hotels built like that.  I knew from everything else in the photo that it wasn't Mosul, but boy do I wish it was plausible for Mosul to be doing so well.  It brought tears to my eyes to think about the tragedy of it all, something hasn't happened in a couple years now.

Another:

I'm going to say this is in Tehran, Iran, just because that is how it feels. Never been there, but I've seen it in movies. Some enterprising person will probably get this with pinpoint accuracy using Google Earth, but I don't have that kind of patience or obsession. So I'll just go with my gut.

Good gut – Tehran it is. Another is more certain:

I immediately recognize this view as the northern "suburbs" (not nearly as suburban as it once was) of Tehran, Iran. The white tile buildings, tall iron fences, telephone poles, and the view of the Alborz mountains in the background were a dead giveaway. Finding the exact location is quite tough because we don't have Google Street Views for Tehran, but I believe the highrises in the background are that of the posh Elahiyeh neighborhood. The view is looking northwest from an apartment off of Shariati street between Qeytarieh and Elahiyeh neighborhoods.

Another:

First time player. For the past two weeks, my VFYW instincts have been spot on (quite to my utter surprise). I have a pretty strong hunch this week as well, so I'm going to give it a go. Sprawling city, nestled right up against a starkly elevated mountain chain. Neither First- nor Third-world, but squarely in between. Yellowing trees seem to indicate that it's early autumn, so Northern Hemisphere (but not too far north, or otherwise the leaves would have already fallen). Doesn't look like Bogota (the mountains in the background are too high and appear too arid), nor does it look like Caracas (for the same reasons).

The next city that comes to mind is Tehran. This high-res (zoomable) photo from Wikipedia looks fairly encouraging (is that the same distinctively shaped building from a different angle?):

Northern-Tehran

And this amateur video tour of Northern Tehran, although not particularly helpful, does at least contain a multitude of cranes (as in the View). Off to Google Earth. (My first time using it as well.) I'd like to be able to identify that distinctively shaped building, and then hopefully start zeroing in on the general vicinity from which the View was shot. 

[Three hours later]

So much easier said that done! It doesn't help that I entirely lack spatial reasoning skills. Since I'm not getting any further traction (but am getting a massive headache), I think it's time to throw in the towel.  I'm sticking with Tehran, and will even say somewhere from the fashionable and affluent Elahiyah district, since this appears to be where many of the Western embassies are located (not that your Iranian readership is restricted to embassy workers).

About a dozen people went with the Iranian capital city, but the winner this week was the only Tehran guesser to have correctly answered a difficult view from a prior contest (several, actually):

I'm not going to win this time, as I've been too busy with work and election stuff, but I'll at least put my hat in the ring and note that this is clearly somewhere in Tehran. I got there almost immediately in a weird way. I looked at the fence, figured it looked like it was trying to keep people out. And having just seen Argo, I took a flyer and googled "US Embassy Tehran", and, amazingly, bingo on the fence:

Tehran-winner

Looking around at photos, this seems like a pretty common fence design for Tehran, and I don't think it's anywhere in the embassy compound. From the angle of downtown and the mountains, the shot looks like it's taken from a private residence or small hotel, from the SE part of the city where all the embassies are. But that's as far as I've had time to get.

Congrats, we will send out a book right away. From the submitter of this week's view:

I've been a long time Dish fan. I divide my time between San Francisco and Doha. I just spent a month in Tehran, my hometown, and here's a picture from my apartment in Tehran. Our apartment in Northern Tehran, near Nobonyad Circle, once surrounded by trees is now smack in the middle of the headquarters of various military branches! Even though Tehran has a terrible problem with air quality, I found the pollution to be slightly less than it was seven years ago, much of it due to the little parks that have been created in every available street corner. In the month that I was in Iran the value of the Rial dropped as if in free fall but contrary to reports in the media, there was no shortage of food, chicken in particular! The stores were very well stocked but it seemed that all the prices doubled overnight.

(Archive)

The Twilight Of Gay Wedge Issues?

Despite his vocal opposition to gay equality in the past, Romney has been conspicuously silent on the issue – which has Maggie Gallagher harrumphy:

Social conservatives are absent from this election. Their money isn’t being used in any visible way to organize voters. If Romney loses, this will be part of the reason why. If Romney wins — and I think he will — look for an intense effort to finally push social issues out of the party.

Libertarian David Boaz would be part of that push:

15 to 20 percent of the voters hold broadly libertarian views, conservative on economic issues and liberal on social issues. They usually vote Republican, if the Republicans emphasize fiscal issues and soft-pedal social conservatism. Republicans are starting to notice that. And they know that, even as support for marriage equality is just flirting with 50 percent, two-thirds of young voters support it. Campaigning against gay marriage is a good way to make the Democratic advantage among young people permanent.

I’m hoping for four victories for marriage equality tonight; but the first popular electoral victory in an initiative would be a watershed moment.

(Video via Murray Waas)