The Election Could Go Either Way, Ctd


From Nate Silver’s latest examination of the polling:

Mr. Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will.

But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent. Not coincidentally, these are also about Mr. Obama’s chances of winning Ohio, according to the forecast.

Blumenthal considers the chances of polling error:

The probability of an Obama lead in the key battleground states is very high, given that virtually all polling in these states shows him ahead. However, the potential for a rare “black swan” polling failure as big as the national polls of 1980 or 1992 is still real, given past experience — amounting to a roughly 1-in-3 chance that such an error would affect the outcome of states like Ohio and Iowa.

Power To The People

Randy scott slavin nyc unplugged east 11th st

Or at least to Lower Manhattan – soon:

Nearly everyone south of 39th Street in Manhattan has been without power since Monday night. As of 4:30 a.m. this morning, Con Ed had restored electricity to 225,000 customers citywide, but 676,000 remained powerless, including 227,000 in Manhattan. But residents there only need to hang on a little longer now. Governor Andrew Cuomo’s suddenly relevant Twitter account confirmed today that, as initial estimates predicted, the entire borough would rejoin modern civilization by Friday or Saturday at the latest after days of living in the dark ages. In fact, any city residents served by underground power lines will be able to watch Netflix again by Saturday.

(Photo from Randy Scott Slavin‘s new NYC UNPLUGGED series, via Facebook)

Dear Barry Goldwater, From George Romney

Screen shot 2012-11-01 at 1.33.58 PM

[Map of Electoral College States in the presidential election of 1976. Blue is Democrat, Red Republican.]

There have been many moments during this campaign when I wondered what the late George Romney would have thought. No doubt whom he'd vote for, but the GOP his son now leads? Romney Sr refused to campaign for Barry Goldwater, and the bitterness lasted long after. The following are some things said by George Romney to Barry Goldwater about the direction of the party and the Southern strategy that now looks as if it could bear final fruit in Romney's Dixie firewall.

Screen shot 2012-11-01 at 1.37.18 PM

[Current RCP Electoral College map with no toss-ups.]

It's a fascinating letter and well worth reading if you are a moderate or independent thinking of voting for the Ailes-Atwater-Rove GOP that Mitt Romney panders endlessly to. Its warnings about the Southern strategy just emerging in Goldwater's opposition to the Civil Rights Act of 1964 are perhaps best illustrated by the maps above, where you can see how in three decades or more, the parties have switched positions geographically. In 1976, the Democrats under Carter won the whole South and lost the entire West and large swathes of the Northeast. By today, the GOP is the inheritor of the Confederacy geographically, and the West and Northeast – previous GOP strongholds – are now the Democratic base.

With that context, check out George Romney's disdain for the idea of ideological parties of the European kind:

First, as to your remarks in Jamaica concerning the possible realignment of the Republican and Democratic parties into “conservative” and "liberal" parties. Whatever the circumstances of the statement, you have indicated that you believe that might be "a happy thing." I disagree.

We need only look at the experience of some ideologically oriented parties in Europe to realize that chaos can result. Dogmatic ideological parties tend to splinter the political and social fabric of a nation, lead to governmental crises and deadlock, and stymie the compromises so often necessary to preserve freedom and achieve progress. A broad based two party structure produces a degree of political stability and viability not otherwise attainable.

Tell that to Hugh Hewitt. Romney then complained to Goldwater about the 1964 GOP Convention platform and had wanted to meet Goldwater in person to convey his concerns. The meeting didn't happen. Back to Romney:

Let me interject that that time the need for such a meeting had become all the more important. You were just about to take a position the 1964 Civil Rights Act contrary to that of most elected Republicans in and out of Congress, and there were disturbing indications that your strategists proposed to make an all-out push for the Southern white segregationist vote and to attempt to exploit the so-called "white backlash" in the North.

The delegates' mail was beginning to contain much of what I'm sure you would regard as "extremist," "hate” literature, backing you. A clear understanding of your position was needed, and I persisted.

It didn't satisfy Romney, who wrote Goldwater further:

A platform whose basic emphasis was on state, local and individual rights and responsibilities but which failed to pledge state, local and individual action in the civil rights field was clearly vulnerable to charges of inconsistency, and more important, of bowing to the segregationists in the South. With respect to the extremism amendment, as I said at the time:

"Experience shouts the differences between success and failure are small. I do not believe our country will survive present perils unless the Republican party provides the program and the leadership that will recapture the interest, respect and support of a majority of voting Americans.”

"With extremists of the right and left preaching and practicing hate, and bearing false witness on the basis of guilt by association and circumstantial rationalization and with such extremists rising to official positions of leadership in the Republican party, we cannot recapture the respect of the nation and lead it to its necessary spiritual, moral, and political rebirth if we hide our heads in the sand and decline to even recognize in our platform that the nation is again beset by modern 'know nothings.’"

Sounds like David Frum, no? The peroration:

The real challenge for us lies in the expansion of voter support for the Republican party in all parts of the country, urban or rural, North or South, colored or white. Without common dedication to this fundamental, our rehash of 1964 positions may become of interest only to the historians of defunct political institutions.

Below the fold is the full, prescient letter, Dec. 21, 1964 and published on November 29, 1966, in the New York Times. The shift from the father's Republican principles to the party the son leads is, well, striking.

Dear Barry:

Thank you for your letter of December 8. My apologies for not having answered sooner.

You have requested "an explanation" from me with respect to certain matters raised in your letter. I will try to cover them as frankly and fully as I can.

First, as to your remarks in Jamaica concerning the possible realignment of the Republican and Democratic parties into “conservative” and "liberal" parties. Whatever the circumstances of the statement, you have indicated that you believe that might be "a happy thing." I disagree.

We need only look at the experience of some ideologically oriented parties in Europe to realize that chaos can result. Dogmatic ideological parties tend to splinter the political and social fabric of a nation, lead to governmental crises and deadlock, and stymie the compromises so often necessary to preserve freedom and achieve progress. A broad based two party structure produces a degree of political stability and viability not otherwise attainable.

I believe, therefore, that we should exert every effort to broaden and strengthen our Republican party, as a means of preserving a strong
two-party system, which is an essential element of a free country.

Next, you state that you are "confused" about the language of the Denver statement that "we need to become inclusive rather than exclusive." It seems to me that the arithmetic of the election should make this unmistakably clear.

A political party which drops from 35,000.000 votes in 1960 to 27,000,000 votes in 1964 has certainly narrowed its orientation and support. The party's need to become more broadly inclusive and attractive should be obvious
to anyone.

Then, and I suppose this is the point which really prompted your letter, you repeatedly indicate that I was at fault for not "backing," "supporting'' and "cooperating 100 per cent with" the top of the national ticket. I suppose I could give you a short and summary answer to this but, to try to resolve misunderstanding, I will cover the point in some detail.

Cites Michigan Vote

First, let me point out that, based upon careful analysis, I'm satisfied that, without changes in your campaign, an endorsement from me would not have made any significant difference in the results of your election.

In Michigan, it would have shifted the state campaign from our Republican record of state progress to the national issues and candidates. Your 33% of the total Michigan vote included about 70% of the Republicans, 30% of
the independents and .5% of the Democrats. Reliable polls show that these percentages remained relatively constant from well before the San Francisco convention all the way through to the election.

The figures appear to have become fixed without regard to any comments or positions of mine. The Presidential campaign dominated Michigan's political consciousness, as I'm sure it did elsewhere. People made up their minds based upon your public positions and your campaign.

I don't make this point to duck responsibility. It's just a fact that should be recognized and you appear to recognize it when you say that "I don't claim for one moment that had you (and others) supported me I would have won."

Second, I believe I made every reasonable effort to bring about circumstances under which I could have "backed" and supported the national ticket. Long before San Francisco–going back to the fall of 1963, I expressed concern about my lack of understanding of your views on several matters which I regarded as vitally important.

In September of 1963 I requested, through your representatives, an opportunity to meet with you to discuss these matters privately and in depth.

(You refer in your letter to the meeting we had at my request much earlier in 1963 in your office in Washington. That discussion was largely limited to three points: (1) The fact that I had a commitment to the people of Michigan that I would not be a candidate for national office in 1964; (2) my invitation to you, as to other candidates, to appear in Michigan; and (3) my concern that your campaign in Michigan avoid, if possible, the involvement of individuals who might make it difficult to preserve party unity and harmony.

At that time I was inclined to support your possible candidacy because the issues that subsequently became of grave concern to me were not then particularly apparent. As a result, I didn't even mention them and discussed a few other matters only incidentally in that meeting.)

At any rate, the meeting I requested in September of 1963 did not occur.

No Meeting Arranged

During the winter of this year, after my earlier requests had been repeatedly renewed, your Mr. Clifton White did tell me he had had talked with you and that you would meet with me after the California primary. However, the meeting did not materialize.

Instead, at the Cleveland Governors' Conference, shortly after the California primary, where I had hoped to be able to meet with you, Paul Fannin handed me a copy of a statement of your positions on some issues, printed for use in the California primary.

In the newspapers I read that when you were questioned about our getting together for what by this time was my well-publicized desire for a discussion in depth, you said you had sent me a printed statement of your positions, and if I didn't understand it, I could get in touch with you.

Let me interject that that time the need for such a meeting had become all the more important. You were just about to take a position the 1964 Civil Rights Act contrary to that of most elected Republicans in and out of Congress, and there were disturbing indications that your strategists proposed to make an all-out push for the Southern white segregationist vote and to attempt to exploit the so-called "white backlash" in the North.

The delegates' mail was beginning to contain much of what I'm sure you would regard as "extremist," "hate” literature, backing you. A clear understanding of your position was needed, and I persisted.

I invited you to Lansing to meet with the Michigan delegates. You accepted. I then telephoned, inviting you through Mrs. Coerver because you were attending a meeting, to come early enough for dinner at my home and a thorough private discussion.

This was first accepted by telephone and then canceled because I was told "the boy said" you could not leave Chicago in time. I then indicated, in writing, my willingness to come to Chicago and fly back with you, so that we could visit on the plane. This was rejected and several days later reproposed by you but unfortunately, only after I had made other unbreakable commitments.

Phone Call Promised

You will then recall our chance meeting at the Washington Butler Airport on June 29. You indicated you could come to Lansing earlier than expected on the following day and that you would call me when you left Chicago.

The next day I not only received no call but you arrived half an hour late for your meeting with our delegation. We talked pleasantries with others present riding in from the airport and briefly in your suite before the meeting of the delegation. I conducted the meeting on the basis of written questions previously prepared by the delegation and used in a similar meeting with Governor Scranton. In my personal view some of your comments in response to delegates' inquiries particularly on civil right and extremists, raised more questions than they resolved. However, I did not regard that relatively open meeting as an appropriate place for me to express to you my concerns. The meeting ended and without saying anything about your failure to arrive on time or of our long sought “discussion in depth," you left.

Following this all-out effort at such a discussion, I decided it was futile to try further before San Francisco.

Sound Platform Sought

However, my efforts to bring about circumstances under which I could support the ticket continued. In my public statements and actions, I placed heavy emphasis on the vital importance of a sound platform.

In a memorandum submitted to Congressman Laird at his request a week before the convention, I spelled out some recommendations of my own, and some offered on behalf of the Republican Governors. This memorandum dealt importantly with positive steps to avoid centralization in Government, emphasizing state, local and individual responsibilities. It also included the points on civil rights and extremism which were later to be the basis for my proposed amendments to the platform.

I presented this memorandum in person and in writing to the entire platform committee on July 8th in San Francisco. My testimony specifically urged, among other rights, that the platform pledge Federal, state, local and individual action to promote the civil rights of all Americans. I also urged the repudiation of extremists who might attach themselves to the party or its candidates. My proposals were subsequently presented in written form to the Platform Committee in debate and were rejected.

Contrary to your statement, my amendment on extremists was offered to the Platform Committee by Richard Van Dusen, the delegate from Michigan and was rejected. Both amendments were next presented, and before the convention consideration of the platform, to your Platform Committee representative, Congressman Rhodes, and he rejected them. I personally discussed the importance of such amendments, briefly and separately, before their being offered on the floor with Congressman Rhodes, Paul Fannin and Richard Kliendienst.

These were not amendments which called for any compromise of your principles, if in fact you find no quarrel with the Denver statements on civil rights and extremism. But they were essential if the party was to be soundly positioned for the campaign on the basis of principles I am convinced are essential to the future of freedom in America and around the world.

Further a platform whose basic emphasis was on state, local and individual rights and responsibilities but which failed to pledge state, local and individual action in the civil rights field was clearly vulnerable to charges of inconsistency, and more important, of bowing to the segregationists in the South. With respect to the extremism amendment, as I said at the time:

"Experience shouts the differences between success and failure are small. I do not believe our country will survive present perils unless the Republican party provides the program and the leadership that will recapture the interest, respect and support of a majority of voting Americans.”

"With extremists of the right and left preaching and practicing hate, and bearing false witness on the basis of guilt by association and circumstantial rationalization and with such extremists rising to official positions of leadership in the Republican party, we cannot recapture the respect of the nation and lead it to its necessary spiritual, moral, and political rebirth if we hide our heads in the sand and decline to even recognize in our platform that the nation is again beset by modern 'know nothings.’"

Private Discussion

The failure of your representatives to accept these concepts left the party in an exposed and vulnerable position. A leading Southern delegate in a private discussion with me, opposing my civil rights amendment after it was introduced but before it was offered, made it clear that there had been a platform deal that was a surrender to the Southern segregationists, contrary to the entire tradition of the party. And it appeared that there was a willingness to accept, perhaps even welcome the support of irresponsible extremists such as those you clearly reject in the Dec. 21, 1964, U.S News interview.

Serious as this weakness was, you could still have corrected it by speaking out clearly and unequivocally. Unfortunately, your acceptance speech moved in precisely the opposite direction, seeming to approve the platform as adopted and to throw down the gauntlet to those who had dared to suggest it could be improved. Then the replacements made on the national committee executive committee by your appointee, Dean Burch, added to the evident intention to restrict direction of the campaign and the party to those who had supported you before the convention. The very ones needed to give the campaign broad and inclusive direction were replaced.

Despite these developments, I still keep the door open for an endorsement of you. On July 15, 1964, as the convention ended, I said:

"As the national campaign progresses in a . . . responsible manner free of hate-peddling and fear spreading and devoted to the issues of the day, I will be happy to support it."

Reviewed Amendments

Just ahead of the Hershey conference, you invited me to Washington for the type of "discussion in depth" I persistently sought for most of the nine months before San Francisco. At that meeting I reviewed the reasons behind the proposed platform amendments on civil rights and extremism, only to be told by you that you had only read a few sections of the platform and didn't know what amendments were being offered.

On that occasion I told you of a leading Southern delegate's revelation that a deal had been made on the platform's civil rights language which our Michigan amendments violated. I also urged you to recognize the need to overcome the effect of Governor Wallace's withdrawal and some Ku Klux Klan endorsement.

You cited your personal dedication and action to eliminate discrimination and human injustice as you did many times before and during the campaign—a personal attitude I do not question now and did not question then or at any time. However, I did my best to point out the inconsistency between your personal record and public record including the arbitrary rejection of my San Francisco amendment which was offered separately from the Rockefeller-Scranton amendment because it dealt only with principle and was not related to the candidacy fight.

While this made no apparent impression on you, at the end of our conference, which also included a shorter discussion of the extremism issue, you asked me to let you have any suggestions before the Hershey conference. This I did in writing, urging a public statement by you at Hershey that would include this key language:

"The enduring solution must be a personal solution in the hearts and minds of individuals. That is why we must encourage civil rights actions by individuals, in families, in neighborhoods, and at the community and state levels of government.”

"The rights of some must not be enjoyed by denying the rights of others. Neither can we permit states' rights at the expense of human rights. The basic principles of individual rights and states' rights are indivisible from individual responsibilities and states' responsibilities."

Extremism Suggestion

My extremism suggestion recommended this statement on your part:

"Extremism in defense of liberty is not a vice but I denounce political extremism, of the left or the right, based on duplicity, falsehood, fear, violence, and threats when they endanger liberty."

"A political extremist in my view is one who advocates overthrow of our Government through either peaceful or violent means; one who uses threats or violence or unlawful or immoral means to achieve political ends; or one who believes that the political end justifies the use of any means, regardless of the effect on others."

"Such political extremism destroys liberty, and is a vice."

"With one or two exceptions, I cannot condemn groups as groups. Guilt by association is contrary to American principles of justice."

In the subsequent inadequate opportunity for discussion at Hershey it was apparent you were not planning to make such strong clarifying statements. As a result, three times in the group meeting I tried to point out your need to recognize and correct the conflict between your personal and public record, My final plea was voiced in essentially these words:

Barry, in essence what I'm urging is that you urge others to do in the field of civil rights what you say you have done at the private, local and state levels. To advocate it with such conviction that everyone will know you mean exactly that.

Notes Campaign Actions

In one response, you said that I was questioning your honesty.

As far as the campaign itself was concerned, I ran as a Republican on a record of state progress built with the assistance of Republican legislators. I endorsed statewide and local Republican candidates and appeared with hundreds of them. I instructed the G.O.P. State Central Committee to extend full support based on Republican accomplishments. I ran as a Republican and I won as a Republican.

Despite our landslide losses in local and state offices, we have stopped the progressive membership shrinkage of the Republican party in Michigan and have started to broaden its base. We are now in the process of taking steps in Michigan similar to those recommended in the Denver Governors' statement designed to broaden and strengthen the party nationally. To the extent I can, I want to help in this effort.

I cannot accept the blame for the divisiveness in the party when you, your representatives, and your campaign strategy refused to encompass those of us who had reservations based on basic American and Republican principles. My reservations I voiced privately to your representatives and publicly on many occasions for some months before the San Francisco convention. Dick Nixon, since you draw the analogy, was astute enough to reach understandings with you and Governor Rockefeller in 1960.

At no time before or during or immediately following the convention did you move effectively to restore the unity of the party. You certainly knew the Hershey conference had failed to do so. Points of principle raised in discussion were not resolved nor did the conference have any apparent influence on the campaign.

Acceptance Speech Cited

Many in the party detected intransigence in your attitudes before, during and after the 1964 convention, culminating in your acceptance speech which, among other things, said:

"Any who join us in all sincerity, we welcome. Those who do not care for our cause we do not expect to enter our ranks in any case."

Indeed, the conduct of the campaign and the Nov. 3 election results demonstrated that your campaign never effectively deviated from the Southern-rural-white orientation. Preconvention discussion and postelection discussions with some who were active in your campaign brought to my attention distressing evidence that this was part of the strategy.

Now, Barry, I do not assert you were aware of this strategy or the author of it. I frankly can't believe you shaped it. You didn't read the platform adopted in San Francisco and you didn't know what amendments were being offered on the floor so you were obviously leaving many vital things almost entirely up to others, vital things about which you were not personally informed. This may account for your inability to see the inconsistencies I tried so hard to help you recognize.

However, for these philosophical, moral and strategic reasons, I was never able to endorse you during the campaign. Of course, millions did because they believed your leadership would inspire a rebirth of Americanism and a strengthening of constitutional government.

I, too, am one dedicated to these objectives, but I know they cannot be realized if foundation principles of American freedom are compromised. The chief cornerstone of our freedom is divinely endowed citizenship for all equally regardless of pigmentation, creed or race.

Unwilling to Compromise

It is true I said on the "Face the Nation" television interview that I did not endorse you because I was not willing to compromise one iota the principles I fought for in San Francisco. But this did not make it "rather clear that you expected me and others to compromise theirs" as you assert. I have never suggested that to you or anyone else.

One reason I was so anxious to talk with you in depth before the convention was because I felt sure we would be in agreement in principle on the above issues and others, providing there was adequate opportunity to discuss them, but I was denied this opportunity until it was too late.

Now, I realize that our busy schedules contributed to the problem, but I sincerely tried over a nine-month period to arrange a discussion. Our relatively public meetings were hardly appropriate "to bury our differences " as you put it. So, if our positions were really closer than it appeared, all I can say is that I made my position known on many occasions and did my best to discuss them with you personally and in depth.

As to the governmental centralization, we do share a common apprehension and concern. But, then you ask me, "Where were you, George, when the chips were down and the going was hard?" Well, Barry, for a long time I've been right on the firing line.

All Republicans (and, I believe, most Americans) are increasingly concerned about constant centralization, but many of us believe we must have a positive rather than negative approach to this increased Federal control.

At San Francisco, I offered a detailed program for stronger state and local government cooperation and activity, plus recommendations that could result in a recovery of certain functions from Federal control. On behalf of the Republican Governors' Association, I urged the Resolutions Committee to adopt these proposals. For the most part the recommendations were ignored by the committee and in your campaign.

In Michigan, I entered public life to help modernize Michigan state and local government as an essential step in slowing and reversing the constant flow of responsibility to Washington. It is futile to talk about stopping centralization and the eventual nullification of our constitution without removing the antiquated obstacles at the state and local level that prevent meeting the needs of the people effectively in the right place.

Urges ‘Sound Solutions’

I do not believe we can prevent unsound solutions to current problems by sheer opposition. My experience convinces me we must present sound solutions based on applying our proven principles to current problems in the development of specific, positive programs.

Only in this way can we stop the adoption of unsound national programs to fill personal, private, local, state and national vacuums. For instance, talk about states' rights will not be an adequate substitute for state responsibility. We are beginning to prove in Michigan, and in some other states, what it takes to deal with centralism.

In light of your recent public statements joining me with Nelson Rockefeller, may I point out that at no time did I publicly or privately say or do anything to create "the bomb scare or Social Security scare." I never discussed them. Nor was I part of any stop-Goldwater effort before or at the convention.

Finally, this has been a difficult letter to write. It is all too apparent that we have differing interpretations of the events of this hectic year. What I have tried to do is to answer your questions about the past. Having done so, I—as I believe you are—am much more concerned with the party's future than its past.

Early Meeting Favored

Just as I believed in full and frank discussion of intraparty differences (and agreements) before the election, I believe in it now. The sooner we can get together and discuss the recovery of the G.O.P., the better. The sooner we can get together with others, as well, the better.

Your agreement with the statement of principles and unifying recommendations adopted by the Republican Governors' Association bodes well for productive future conversations. I urge your early direct public endorsement of it.

I also urge you to take the initiative in calling the leadership planning group meeting that is recommended instead of fighting the implementation of that hopeful aggreement. This would be constructive and a big step in the right direction.

The real challenge for us lies in the expansion of voter support for the Republican party in all parts of the country, urban or rural, North or South, colored or white. Without common dedication to this fundamental, our rehash of 1964 positions may become of interest only to the historians of defunct political institutions.

Intraparty Talks Urged

I believe an intraparty leadership conference representing all elements of the party is essential to unifying and strengthening it. Based on our experience at the Denver Governors' Conference, I know it will take a schedule that provides adequate time for the frank, sincere, searching discussion that is essential in resolving misunderstanding and hammering out agreement on principles and programs.

The Denver conference is the only one in which I have participated involving representative party leadership from any party segment where such a procedure was used and such a result achieved.

It was a significant accomplishment to arrive at unanimous agreement in a group representing the diversity in viewpoint of a Paul Fannin and Nelson Rockefeller.

It was also significant that a preponderant majority exercised restraint and did not force their position into the approved statement contrary to the views of a significant minority.

I hope you will actively support the Denver recommendations designed to achieve needed national leadership agreement and understanding. I regret such a leadership conference could not be convened ahead of the Chicago meeting of the National Committee. This I advocated but reluctantly abandoned as being impossible considering the time problem.

You may be sure I am prepared at any time to meet with you or other party leaders to increase our effectiveness in strengthening our party for the essential task it faces of arousing the nation to the developing national crisis and providing the programs that will get us back on the road to realizing America's divine destiny.

Barry, from a personal standpoint as well as party standpoint, I wish the past year had turned out differently so I could have followed my personal attitude toward you as a friend and endorsed you.

Lenore joins me in wishing the new year will be one of health and happiness for you and Peggy and your loved ones.

Sincerely, ?GEORGE ROMNEY

The Book Industry Is Still Doomed

Shafer doubts that a Random House and Penguin merger will save the book industry:

The Penguin-Random House merger would theoretically give the new company more leverage in the pricing fights with Amazon et. al. But as important as that struggle for control might be, it still leaves Penguin-Random House operating in a moribund and hidebound enterprise that looks and acts like something out of the 18th century. Book publishers are playing against a stacked deck. They don’t own the distribution channels, they don’t own the stores, they don’t control any proprietary technologies or patents, they’re terrible at inventing new products, and the market value of their brands is dwindling. Plus, their most valuable properties, their writers, are free agents who don’t really belong to them.

This merger—and other book industry consolidation to come—is less about winning than it is losing more slowly.

Did Sandy Help Obama?

Christie_Obama

Americans are giving Obama hurricane response high marks:

ABC reports that "78 percent rate Obama’s response to the hurricane positively (as excellent or good), while just 8 percent see it negatively. Romney, who naturally has had a far less prominent role in this issue, is rated positively for his response to the hurricane by 44 percent, negatively by 21 percent, with many more, 35 percent, expressing no opinion." Even 63 percent of Republicans approve of Obama's disaster leadership

Margaret Carlson believes that Obama's visit to New Jersey has guaranteed his victory next week:

In September my Bloomberg View colleague Josh Barro wrote that Romney lost the election on the day his dismissive remarks about "the 47 percent" were made public. If Obama wins this election, we may look back at today and say this hug in Brigantine, New Jersey, is the moment that sealed it for him. Obama and Christie made the politics of the presidential campaign look small, and reminded us that politicians care about something more than who's ahead in Ohio.

(Photo: US President Barack Obama is greeted by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie upon arriving in Atlantic City, New Jersey, on October 31, 2012 to visit areas hardest hit by the unprecedented cyclone Sandy. By Jewel Samad/AFP/Getty Images)

Chart Of The Day

Party_favorability

Tom Holbrook finds that the GOP brand is still tarnished:

[T]hroughout this campaign period the Democratic Party has been viewed more positively than the Republican Party. In fact, there is not a single poll in this series in which the Republican party registered a net positive rating, and not a single case in which the net Republican rating was higher than the net Democrat rating. The average net rating for the Republican Party in this series is -13, whereas the average for the Democratic Party is +.3. To be sure, the net rating for the Democratic Party is sometimes in the negative, and the gap toward the end of the series is not as great as it was in the wake of the Democratic convention, but it is clear that the Democrats hold an advantage on this front

Steven Taylor adds:

The bottom line is: we know a substantial number of voters (in the high 40s to low 50s) will vote for Romney, the Republican, next week. However, we also know that partisan ID in polls does not fit those numbers. As such, it is clear that a lot of people who will vote Republican do not wish to be called Republican for whatever reason. The above graph gives us some context: the net view of the GOP at the moment is negative, and it is not just because Democrats view the party unfavorably (because there are not enough Democrats to create a net unfavorable outcome).

The Vatican’s Merger With The GOP

In Peoria, Illinois, Catholic Bishop Jenky, who has previously compared president Obama with Hitler and Stalin, has ordered a letter to be read at all masses next Sunday by the priest. This instruction gives you a taste of the legacy of Benedict XVI in his restoration of total clerical and episcopal obedience:

By virtue of your vow of obedience to me as your Bishop, I require that this letter be personally read by each celebrating priest at each Weekend Mass, November 3/4.

It’s a screed about religious liberty, with respect to the liberty of Catholic hierarchs to prevent the 99 percent of their female parishioners who use contraception from getting it from their health insurance via Obamacare. Money quote from the unhinged letter which all but instructs Catholics to vote for Romney-Ryan:

Nearly two thousand years ago, after our Savior had been bound, beaten, scourged, mocked, and crowned with thorns, a pagan Roman Procurator displayed Jesus to a hostile crowd by sarcastically declaring: Behold your King. The mob roared back: We have no king but Caesar. Today, Catholic politicians, bureaucrats, and their electoral supporters who callously enable the destruction of innocent human life in the womb also thereby reject Jesus as their Lord. They are objectively guilty of grave sin.

For those who hope for salvation, no political loyalty can ever take precedence over loyalty to the Lord Jesus Christ and to his Gospel of Life.

Democrats are the equivalent of the mob who called out to crucify Jesus. The man has lost his sense of proportion and compassion and restraint entirely. But so, alas, has the hierarchy he serves.

Why Has Christie Embraced Obama? Ctd

Kevin Drum discounts political calculation on the governor's part:

I sort of give Christie the benefit of the doubt here. Partly this is because he does seem to be a genuinely emotional guy and may simply be reacting to the moment. But the other reason is that I find it hard to believe that Christie truly thinks he has a chance of winning the Republican nomination in 2016 regardless of what he does.

How Galupo understands Christie's recent statements:

Where Dowd and others are mistaken … is to assume that Christie is thinking about positioning himself for 2016. That’s ridiculous. Christie has more immediate fish to fry — namely his own reelection in 2013. Unemployment in the Garden State remains stubbornly high. Atlantic City’s new Revel casino, subsidized by the state and personally promoted by Christie, is struggling to stay on this side of bankruptcy. And he would face a very formidable opponent in Newark Mayor Cory Booker, who is contemplating a run.

I agree with both analyses. We can overthink this. Christie is coping with a disaster. To have the president checking in at midnight and providing all the assistance he has must feel like a burden shared and lessened a touch. Christie's a blowhard, but in so far as I have been able to see any coverage, struck me as completely genuine. Previous Dish coverage here.

New York Not So Shitty

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A reader writes:

You’re in a Starbucks, connected to the Internet. You have a bed to sleep in and your husband and pets are with you. You’re doing pretty well. Think of it this way: You could have moved to Breezy Point.

That much I don’t dispute. We’re fine, and I’m now blogging at Patrick’s way uptown. My only real issue is my CPAP machine, which is trivial compared with goodness knows how many old folks trapped in high-rises, with more vital medical needs. This time I’m not complaining. Last night, the moon came out and the deserted dark streets of the Village were lit just from the sky. It was surreal and serene. At this point, I think of my initiation into New York has a kind of baptism, where they’ve kept me below the surface long enough for me to be extra-grateful when we get, say, electricity. Another:

You said: “Well, it cannot get any worse, can it? Can it?” I grew up in Manhattan and lived there for 25 years of my life.  I never experienced anything close to what New Yorkers are going through now.  There have been blackouts, but nothing sustained like this.  Even 9/11 wasn’t this bad – quality of living-wise. That was obviously deeply, mortally traumatic, but it didn’t involve a lengthy period living in what are essentially third-world conditions. What I’m saying is, this is the worst it has ever been in this city.  I’d love to say that it can’t get any worse, but I didn’t even think it could get this bad!

Another:

I’ve still got a friend in Queens I can’t contact. I hope she’s okay and I don’t really have reason to think otherwise, but worry isn’t always rational. You may already recognize that for many New Yorkers seeing Manhattan hobbled and emergency workers endangering themselves rekindles a collective 9/11 PTSD. But one of the things that makes NY great (I’m from the West Coast but moved here 15 years ago) is the way New Yorkers, for all of their faults and divisions, relate to each other in the midst of disaster. I know how trite this will sound but I must: This great and flawed city is not the problem, Andrew, and the more we confront adversity together the stronger we’ll be. Yeah, sometimes it sucks – a lot – but being able to see the imperfect beauty in each other amidst the filth and rubble is part of what makes life worth living.

Indeed. Several friends have offered us an air mattress uptown, a hot shower, and the little neighborhood restaurant, Moustache, even served dinner by candlelight, since their ovens are all gas-based. The soup was gratis. Outside on a usually busy street, a young man was throwing a lacrosse ball against the walls of a construction site. To wit:

We’re all used to the Hollywood idea of post-apocalyptic America–men in fatigues roaming around with guns, looting and killing. What happened when my little village of Pelham was struck by the worst storm in its history–trees down everywhere, a dozen homes destroyed, vast damage–no power or phones. Although we sit on the water of Long Island Sound, the surge was pretty modest, so no flooding–that was the blessing. So what happened? As soon as the storm subsided, neighbors were coming by: are you okay? was anyone injured? do you need batteries, milk, eggs? Tom down the street has a generator and anybody who needs to recharge phones or laptops can hook up. (Tom set up a charging station for neighbors in front of his garage.) On day two, when a few houses got power back, those who had it were advertising their services to neighbors–come by and take a hot shower! We’ll hold your freezer things. You’re welcome to sit in our living room and read–no flashlight required! That afternoon, the local pharmacy and grocery reopened–handing out bags to customers–put your freezer things in this bag with your name, and we’ll freeze it for you! Phone company, fire, police crews out at once, working hard. People stopping by giving them a thermos of coffee or some fresh baked muffins. Spirits very upbeat. People extraordinarily kind and friendly. Now that’s the America I want to think about. In times of disaster, people share and come together. And that much maligned government? It works, and it’s there for you when you need it.

Another:

Maybe you should go back to D.C. or P-Town.

After weathering the storm here in Harlem with my family (where we, despite some sketchy moments, retained electricity and hot water throughout), I set out downtown to check on my below-ground storefront business, located in the East Village. I was worried about flooding, even though I had prepared. I knew I did not have electricity. I didn’t know what to expect. Before I even left my building, I was greeted by neighbors, asking if I needed anything.

I got into my car and turned on the radio, but sick of NPR and news radio I decided to switch over to Hot 97, the urban/hip-hop station. A tribute to Run-DMC’s slain DJ, Jam Master Jay, was playing (this at about 9am). DJ Enuff, a NYC mainstay since the ’90s, had been DJing for 21 straight hours – none of the other DJs could make it in.

As I drove slowly through Spanish Harlem, the Upper East Side, and down into Midtown, I rolled down my windows and turned the volume all the way up as “Hard Times” blared through the speakers. I nearly wept. This, I felt, was the New York I fell in love with. The DJs, so long a cornerstone of our culture, were still at work. The radio was still on. And as confused tourists wandered the streets, New Yorkers got down to the work of putting their lives back together.

At 39th Street the traffic lights turned dark. I got downtown and parked my car in an illegal spot with a policeman’s blessing. The streets were flooded with people. Everyone was caring and obliging. I checked on a friend in the neighborhood, who I hadn’t heard from since the day before. We had a smoke and decided to walk around. He told me that the night before had been a blast. It seemed like the party was rolling on.

We’ve done this through 9/11, The Blackout, and countless blizzards. This city is at its best in crisis. When life gives us lemons, we make lemonade and spike that bitch.

The fact that you are crouching in your apartment, put upon by events and wed to a Starbucks (of all places!) says to me that you are not cut out to be here. And we do not want you if you do not want us. Love the blog and read it multiple times a day. Just calling as I see it, as my fellow NYers are wont to do.

Another:

I love that you’re blogging from a Starbucks in Midtown. I love how you’re suffering the storm right alongside all the folks who don’t have a world famous blog, even if it’s not a choice. New York is an intense, hyper-competitive, loud, dirty, and difficult place, and the best thing about it is that the guy with the turban, the drag queen, the stockbroker, and the big fat black lady all make it through the daily difficulty alongside each other.  At this moment, my Brooklyn neighbors are handing out Tilapia to trick-or-treaters. So there’s that too. Rich, poor, or in-between, everyone here is crazy.

All of us will bitch every day about the difficulties of the city, but we’ll all end up helping each other at one time or another too.  And helping here is different than helping in other places around the world, because the variety and chaos makes it harder here. It’s harder to help because so much angst and resistance builds inside of us, as New Yorkers. It’s harder to help because we’re often ‘other’ to each other, in a different class or ethnic group, etc. So when the shit hits and it’s everyone in, and you help, there’s no place on earth you’ll feel more connected.  The money, race, lifestyle boundaries come down, the seething hostility is overcome, and god mutherfuckin’ dammit, we are one!

By the way, all your complaining about New York is essentially turning you into a New Yorker. You are not alone, brother. We all hate it and that’s why we all love it.

I think I’m beginning to get it now.

(Photo: East Village residents enjoy a bonfire on October 31, 2012 in New York City. Superstorm Sandy has claimed several dozen lives in the United States and has caused massive flooding across much of the Atlantic seaboard. By Allison Joyce/Getty Images)

Man-Made Natural Disasters, Ctd

Avent joins the growing chorus:

[S]cientists are becoming ever less shy in drawing a line between a higher frequency of “extreme” weather events and a warming climate. Climate shifts the probability distribution of such events, and so global warming may not have “caused” Sandy, but it makes Sandy-like storms more probable. As the ever-less-funny joke goes, 500-year weather events seem to pop up every one or two years these days. Frequency and intensity of storms aside, future hurricanes that hit the east coast will do so atop rising sea levels. Contemplate the images of seawater rushing over Manhattan streets and into subway and highway tunnels. Then consider that sea levels are rising. And then reflect on the fact that New York is very much like a typical megacity in being located on the water; tracing a finger around America’s coastlines leads one past most of the country’s largest and richest cities.

Of course many saw this coming:

Science and its practical consort Engineering mostly come out of this week with enhanced reputations.

For some years now, various researchers have been predicting that such a trauma was not just possible but almost certain, as we raised the temperature and with it the level of the sea—just this past summer, for instance, scientists demonstrated that seas were rising faster near the northeast United States (for reasons having to do with alterations to the Gulf Stream) than almost anyplace on the planet. They had described, in the long run, the loaded gun, right down to a set of documents describing the precise risk to the New York subway system.

As nature pulled the trigger in mid-October, when a tropical wave left Africa and moved into the Atlantic and began to spin, scientists were able to do the short-term work of hurricane forecasting with almost eerie precision. Days before Sandy came ashore we not only knew approximately where it would go, but that its barometric pressure would drop below previous records and hence that its gushing surge would set new marks. The computer models dealt with the weird hybrid nature of the storm—a tropical cyclone hitting a blocking front—with real aplomb; it was a bravura performance.

In so doing, it should shame at least a little those people who argue against the computer modeling of climate change on the grounds that “they can’t even tell the weather three days ahead of time—how can they predict the climate?”

Then again, it could all be caused by “Mars wobbles” – over to you, Fox News.