Nate Cohn goes another round:
So how many votes did Obama lose to racism? Even before considering Stephens-Davidowitz’s study, five million votes seems too high. The idea that the president ought to have won reelection in a landslide is a little tough to swallow, and it’s wildly inconsistent with the expectations of the economic-based, fundamental models. President Bill Clinton, with a far healthier economy, won by about the same amount as Stephen-Davidowitz expected for Obama. President George W. Bush, with a modestly healthier economy, actually did worse than Obama. If anything, there’s a case that Obama outperformed the fundamentals in 2012.