Allahpundit reviews Marco Rubio’s favorable polling numbers:
If you want to know why Rubio hasn’t walked away from the Gang of Eight bill yet, that’s why. He has no political incentive to do so. If he hangs in there and the bill passes, he’ll get all sorts of media love as the “new leader of the GOP,” a man who “makes things happen in Washington,” blah blah. You and I will pound the table and swear that we’ll never, ever vote for him in 2016, and that might be true— for awhile. But strange things happen.
Harry Enten believes that appearing moderate and cozying up to GOP elites will improve Rubio’s chances in 2016. Why he needs some moderate cred:
Rubio’s Senate record paints him as one of the most conservative senators. He was the seventh most conservative senator in the 112th Congress, sandwiched between Jim Inhofe and Ron Johnson. As I wrote before, it’s unlikely the Republican party will nominate a very conservative candidate in 2016. When it liked Barry Goldwater in 1964, and Ronald Reagan in 1980, the party had recently controlled the presidency. But when the party hasn’t been in the White House for eight years or more, it goes for a more centrist pick in order to win.
Meanwhile, Noah Rothman focuses on the “inevitability” of Chris Christie:
[He] is America’s favorite Republican. Unfortunately for Christie, he is also Republicans least favorite Republican.
But while some are ready to dismiss the governor’s presidential prospects on these grounds, don’t be so sure. Appeals to inevitability and electability have historically gone a long way towards getting a reluctant GOP primary electorate to hold their nose and vote for the candidate they do not love but think can win. … Polls like these help Christie to create and manage an image as the GOP’s most electable candidate. At a certain point in both the 2008 and 2012 election cycles, when the chips were down for both Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Romney, they appealed to the Republican electorate to support them on these very grounds. Ultimately, it was an effective argument. Christie can, and probably will, do the same.
Barro looks at how Christie has remained popular in New Jersey. Bottom line:
[H]is overall record is good because it’s built on skepticism, not cynicism, about government spending. If other Republicans started copying that approach, they might start copying his broad popularity, too.
Reihan, meanwhile, considers reports that Wisconsin governor Scott Walker will throw his hat in the ring:
The Republican 2016 contest already has a rough shape: several would-be candidates are crowding the rightward end of the spectrum (let’s say Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Scott Walker), one or two are presenting themselves as problem-solving pragmatists with establishment support (Chris Christie and possibly Jeb Bush), and one or two are hovering in-between (this is where I suspect Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan would wind up, though I suspect Ryan is too wise to run). My gut sense is that Walker and Christie are the ones to watch.
Recent Dish on Rand Paul speculation here.
The Dish 