Annie Lowrey has a primer on it:
Congress could substantially mar the law by stripping or delaying the tax penalties on Americans who decline to buy insurance — the so-called “individual mandate.” And it is one tactic that Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio is mulling.
A new Urban Institute study explains why. Using Congressional Budget Office figures, it shows that delaying the individual mandate for a year would reduce coverage by about 11 million people in 2014. That would save the government some money. However, the effect on the health insurance marketplace might be profound. Many young and healthy people would decline to buy insurance coverage, with no penalty. The pool of the insured would be relatively sicker. Insurers would be forced to increase rates, as the healthy would do less to cross-subsidize the ill. Premiums would shoot up.
Kliff makes related points:
“The individual mandate is inextricably linked to the ACA’s insurance market reforms,” says Robert Zirkelbach, spokesman for America’s Health Insurance Plans. “All of the premiums that have been submitted for exchange coverage are based on the individual mandate being in effect. If the coverage requirement were to change, premiums would have to be modified to account for fewer young and healthy people signing up for coverage.”
Ezra highlights another reason for Democrats to resist delay:
Democrats point out that Obamacare’s implementation schedule wasn’t an accident. It was purposefully designed to begin in an off-year. That way there would be a year to work out the worst kinks, and by the time of the actual election, Democrats could point to millions of people getting insurance, running ad after ad highlighting constituents who now have coverage. If implementation didn’t begin until October 2014, all voters would know about Obamacare would be the early glitches, as insurance coverage wouldn’t begin until January 1, 2015.
In other words, the GOP is trying to sell Democrats on a political nightmare they specifically wrote the law to avoid — and they’re doing so on the grounds that it would actually be a political boon!
The Dish 