Betting On The Nobel

Zach Schonfeld checks in with the bookies monitoring the literature contest:

The critically acclaimed Japanese writer Haruki Murakami currently leads the pack, boasting projected odds of 3/1, while American author (and frequent tweeter) Joyce Carol Oates follows closely behind with 6/1 odds. (Bob Dylan, if you’re wondering, drags behind with a 50/1 chance of winning, by Ladbrokes’ count.)

Recent Dish on Dylan’s chances here. In a come-from-behind twist, the odds for Norway’s Jon Fosse has shot from 100/1 to 9/1:

What gives? As we’ve previously covered, the bookmakers’ methods have little to do with the actual quality of the literature.

They’re just thumbing through blogs and mainstream media outlets in a mad dash to figure out which authors are getting the most buzz in the weeks leading up to the announcement. This method, however unscientific and fraught, has provided Ladbrokes with an impressive accuracy rate in past years. … Fosse’s temperature is pretty hot right now. Ladbrokes cut its odds on the playwright dramatically after noticing several surprisingly large bets on him in his home country of Norway. According to the company, “Fosse has come from out of nowhere to become the hottest writer, and it’s not inconceivable that he could become favorite to win before the announcement is made.”

Track the latest odds here.